Eli Tyre

Public be­liefs vs. Pri­vate beliefs

Twit­ter thread on postrationalists

His­tor­i­cal math­e­mat­i­ci­ans ex­hibit a birth or­der effect too

[Question] How do we pre­pare for fi­nal crunch time?

[Question] How do you as­sess the qual­ity /​ re­li­a­bil­ity of a sci­en­tific study?

[Question] Does it be­come eas­ier, or harder, for the world to co­or­di­nate around not build­ing AGI as time goes on?

The Ba­sic Dou­ble Crux pattern

[Question] Do we have up­dated data about the risk of ~ per­ma­nent chronic fa­tigue from COVID-19?

Un­pack­ing the dy­nam­ics of AGI con­flict that sug­gest the ne­ces­sity of a premp­tive pivotal act

[Question] What are some real life Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria?

On the lethal­ity of bi­ased hu­man re­ward ratings

I’m no longer sure that I buy dutch book ar­gu­ments and this makes me skep­ti­cal of the “util­ity func­tion” abstraction

[Question] Should I self-var­i­o­late to COVID-19

Key De­ci­sion Anal­y­sis—a fun­da­men­tal ra­tio­nal­ity technique

A tax­on­omy of Cruxes

Ba­sic Con­ver­sa­tional Co­or­di­na­tion: Micro-co­or­di­na­tion of In­ten­tion

[Question] His­tor­i­cal fore­cast­ing: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a cer­tain date?

[Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

[Question] Most re­li­able news sources?

[Question] What is the cur­rent bot­tle­neck on ge­netic en­g­ineer­ing of hu­man em­bryos for im­proved IQ