True (Scottish) Rationality is winning. Firstly, whom do we call a rational agent in Economics? It is a utility optimiser given constraints. An agent that makes optimal choices and attains max utility possible, that’s basically winning. But real life is more complicated, all agents are computationally constrained and “best case” is not only practically unattainable, it is uncomputable, so we cannot even compare against it. So we talk about doing “better than normally expected”, “better than others”, etc. When I say “winning” I mean achieving ambitious goals.
But achieving ambitious goals in real life is mainly not about calculating the optimal choices! It is mainly about character, integrity, execution, leadership and a lot of other stuff! How come I still claim that Rationality is Winning? What use is knowing what to do if in practice you don’t do it? Well, that’s the point! An “optimal” strategy that is infeasible is not optimal)
But why focus on rationality at all if other stuff is more important? Because, well, your character, integrity, execution, resources, etc are not under your direct control except via the decisions that you make. You get them by making rational decisions. Making decisions that make you win and achieve your (ambitious) goals is what I call rationality.
“Sometimes the way you win is by copying what your neighbours are doing, and working hard.” And in this case behaving rationally is copying what your neighbours do and working hard. Doing anything else is irrational, IMHO. Figuring out whom, when and how to copy is a huge part of rationality! We also call it critical thinking. Knowing how and when to work hard is another one! Why do you exclude one of the most important cognitive algorithms “sifting out the good from the bad” from “the study (and applied skill) of finding cognitive algorithms that form better beliefs and make better decisions”? If you are not good at critical thinking, how do you know that LW is not complete bullshit?
“Developing rationality” as a goal is an awful one because you don’t get feedback. Learning doesn’t happen without feedback. “Winning” may be a great one IIF you pick fields with strong immediate practical unbiased feedback. For example, try playing poker, data science in an executive position, all kinds of trading (RTB, crypto, systematic, HFT, just taking advantage of the opportunities when they present themselves), doing research just for the purpose of figuring out stuff for yourself because your life & money (universal resource) depends on it (or because it’s fun and later your life will depends on it :) ). These are all examples from my life and they worked wonders for me.
I am sorry if I am coming a little aggressive, I think this is a great post raising a great point. I am just a rude post-USSR trader and I believe that being direct and up to the point is the best way to communicate and to show respect)
I never had an opportunity to participate in CFAR workshops and that’s a pity. I would be happy to discuss this stuff further because I think both sides have useful stuff to share.
It is always good to have additional data, but this result is totally expected, so I don’t update much based on it. When I’ve discussed the efficiency evidence with RaDVaC team, they mentioned that:
- they have tried commercial tests and didn’t manage to get even one positive result
- they have tried ELISA to measure the blood antibody titers and got some good results (part awesome, part good, part not so good)
- they have tried ELISA to measure the saliva antibodies, there are more of them than in blood samples, but there is no methodology to translate the raw data into titers for saliva
- they focus on B-cell target mechanism, not ACE2 binding and definitely not serum antibodies, so they don’t care that much about the serum antibody titers