Why is nobody in San Francisco pretty? Hormones make you pretty but dumb (pretty faces don’t usually pay rent in SF). Why is nobody in Los Angeles smart? Hormones make you pretty but dumb. (Sincere apologies to all residents of SF & LA.)
Some other possibilities:
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Pretty people self-select towards interests and occupations that reward beauty. If you’re pretty, you’re more likely to be popular in high school, which interferes with the dedication necessary to become a great programmer.
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A big reason people are prettier in LA is they put significant effort into their appearance—hair, makeup, orthodontics, weight loss, etc.
Then why didn’t evolution give women big muscles? I think because if you are in the same strength range as men then you are much more plausibly murderable. It is hard for a male to say that he killed a female in self-defense in unarmed combat. No reason historically to conscript women into battle. Their weakness protects them. (Maybe someone else has a better explanation.)
Perhaps hunter/gatherer tribes had gender-based specialization of labor. If men are handling the hunting and tribe defense which requires the big muscles, there’s less need for women to pay the big-muscle metabolic cost.
You contrast the contrarian with the “obsessive autist”, but what if the contrarian also happens to be an obsessive autist?
I agree that obsessively diving into the details is a good way to find the truth. But that comes from diving into the details, not anything related to mainstream consensus vs contrarianism. It feels like you’re trying to claim that mainstream consensus is built on the back of obsessive autism, yet you didn’t quite get there?
Is it actually true that mainstream consensus is built on the back of obsessive autism? I think the best argument for that being true would be something like:
Prestige academia is full of obsessive autists. Thus the consensus in prestige academia comes from diving into the details.
Prestige academia writes press releases that are picked up by news media and become mainstream consensus. Science journalism is actually good.
BTW, the reliability of mainstream consensus is to some degree a self-defying prophecy. The more trustworthy people believe the consensus to be, the less likely they are to think critically about it, and the less reliable it becomes.