chanamessinger
Conversational moves in EA / Rationality that I like for epistemics
“So you are saying that”
“But I’d change my mind if”
“But I’m open to push back here”
“I’m curious for your take here”
“My model says”
“My current understanding is…”
“...I think this because…”
“...but I’m uncertain about…”
“What could we bet on?”
“Can you lay out your model for me?”
“This is a butterfly idea”
“Let’s do a babble”
“I want to gesture at something / I think this gestures at something true”
- Nov 29, 2022, 5:01 PM; 15 points) 's comment on Some important questions for the EA Leadership by (EA Forum;
- Some frames I liked from Atlas by Oct 24, 2022, 11:20 AM; 14 points) (EA Forum;
chanamessinger’s Shortform
This is why less wrong needs the full suite of emoji reacts.
Title changed!
I meant signposting to indicate things like saying “here’s a place where I have more to say but not in this context” etc, during for instance a conversation, so I’m truthfully saying that there’s more to the story.
Yeah, I think “intentionally causing others to update in the wrong direction” and “leaving them with their priors” end up pretty similar (if you don’t make strong distinctions between action and omission, which I think this test at least partially rests on) if you have a good model of their priors (which I think is potentially the hardest part here).
The Onion Test for Personal and Institutional Honesty
Kind is one of the four adjectives in your description of Iron Hufflepuff.
Hm, Keltham has a lot of good qualities here, but kind doesn’t seem among them.
Sounds scary, but thank you for the model of what’s actually going on!
Oh woah! Thanks for linking.
True! 65 Watts! That would really be something.
Unfortunately I’m not seeing anything close to that on the Amazon UK site :/
Might be bad search skills, though.
Your link’s lightbulbs have a bayonet style, not the E27 threading :) Thanks for the other link! Amazon says currently unavailable.
ETA: Found some, will add to post
Tried to buy those, didn’t have any luck finding ones that fit nicely into my sockets! (An embarassing mistake I didn’t describe in detail is buying corn bulbs that turned out to be...mini?) If you have an amazon UK link for ones with E27 threading, that would be awesome.
ETA: Having looked, it looks like not all corn bulbs are brighter than the ones I have, though I have now found 2000 lumen ones. I don’t know if corn bulbs are still better if they have lower lumens. I would guess not?
ETA 2: The link above does have E27 if you click through the multiple listings in the same link, wasn’t obvious to me at first, thanks!
How to Lumenate (UK Edition)
I saw people discussing forecasting success of this on twitter and people were saying that the intelligence agencies actually called this right. Does anyone know an easy link to what those agencies were saying?
Context: https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard/status/1496699988801433602?s=20&t=mQ8sAzMRppI8Pr44O38M3w
https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard/status/1496866236973658112?s=20&t=mQ8sAzMRppI8Pr44O38M3w
- Feb 26, 2022, 7:47 PM; 54 points) 's comment on Russia has Invaded Ukraine by (
Nice! Welcome!
I definitely find it helpful to be surrounded by people who will do this for me and help me cultivate a habit of it over time. The case for it being very impactful is if people do a one-time thing, like apply for something or put themselves in the running for something that they otherwise wouldn’t have that makes a big difference. The ones that are about accountability (Can I remind you about that in a week?) also are sort of a conscientiousness loan, which can be cheap since it can be easier to check in on other people than to do it for yourself.
It is definitely important to have sense of who you’re talking to and what they need (law of equal and opposite advice). For what it’s worth, 5-10 and 13 are aimed to be disproportionately helpful for people who have trouble doing things (depending on the reason).
Why would they be jokes?
Don’t know what you mean in the latter sentence.