Barry_Cotter

Karma: 1,132

Barry_Cotter 9 Apr 2022 10:03 UTC
2 points
in reply to: Tim Liptrot’s comment on: How to estimate my probability of getting a (competitive) job in Academia
Can’t you staple three papers together with filler/linking material and call it “Essays in Political Science” or a narrower topic if you’ve been focused?

I suggest emailing Chris Blattman and Bryan Caplan and asking for advice. Greet, be brief and to the point. I suggest Blattman because he works as a political scientist though he was trained as an economist. If your statistical skills are good you can do very well outside academia. Amazon Economists (PhD required) are getting over $175K starting. Bryan Caplan I suggest because he suggests academia is a truly amazing job for some and the competition isn’t that high.

https://www.econlib.org/jason-brennansgood-work-if-you-can-keep-it/

Barry_Cotter 24 Oct 2021 0:44 UTC
2 points
on: How to estimate my probability of getting a (competitive) job in Academia
Surely this calls for data analysis? I’ve seen Economics papers on publication and placement for PhD students by programme, and I think for Sociology. There are almost certainly relevant publications for your field and if there aren’t you could probably get a publishable paper out of writing up your own research.

If you’re in Year 2 of your programs and on track to have three publications by Year 5 your personal probability of getting a tenure track position must be 50% or higher, not 25%. Again, this calls for data. The 25% of your programme’s graduates do get placed; what kind of publication records did they have on graduation? Compare yourself to the reference class you want to be in. I am almost certain PhD graduates in PS’s top programme have on average less publications than you do already. Most Harvard/MIT Economics PhD graduates never publish a paper. I don’t know what Political Science is like but if it’s similar your publication record is going to look pretty good.

If you’re considering industry why not look for the skills they like and try to publish something that would use those skills? Look up Economist jobs at Amazon, or read Susan Athey’s advice for people who want those jobs.

Barry_Cotter 23 Oct 2021 8:21 UTC
2 points
in reply to: ike’s comment on: Where are the quick, easy wins?
If you are in that position surely the economically rational thing to do would be to juice your returns by borrowing to invest more?

Barry_Cotter 23 Oct 2021 6:56 UTC
2 points
in reply to: Razied’s comment on: Where are the quick, easy wins?
The consultants aren’t parasites. They offer something extremely valuable, on call, disposable expertise without requiring you to hire another full time employee. If you have a month’s work for someone but that someone needs to actually know what they’re doing right now then paying a large premium can make sense very quickly. Convenience and lack of expectation of continued employment are part of what contractors generally provide.

I see the appeal of actually making a thing but the thing can equally be an info-product like a book or course that also serves as proof of expertise. That serves as a casing card for consulting services too. Margins are better on services and information products than on physical objects.

Barry_Cotter 22 Oct 2021 23:45 UTC
3 points
on: Young Scientists
Do you have any experience teaching, interacting with or mentoring 14-18 year olds that makes you confident some small minority of them can do this? If you please give details.

Barry_Cotter 5 Sep 2015 5:53 UTC
0 points
in reply to: taygetea’s comment on: Open Thread August 31 - September 6
Based on my own experience I strongly suspect the only way to do this is to fail repeatedly until you succeed. That said the following rules are very, very good.

If you really, really want an example I can send you my Developmental Psychology and Learning and Behaviour Deck. It consists of the entirety of a Cliff’s Notes kind of Developmental Psychology book, a better dev psych’s summary section and an L&B book’s summary section. In retrospect the Cliff’s Notes book was a mistake but I’ve invested enough in it now that I may as well continue it, most of the cards are mature anyway. I would recommend finding a decent book on the topic you’re learning, and writing your own summaries or heavily rewording their summaries and using lots and lots of cloze deletions.

I just found this guide to using Anki.

http://alexvermeer.com/anki-essentials/

It’s possible it may be worth looking at.

If you really want my deck pm me your email address.

http://super-memory.com/articles/20rules.htm

Summary

Here again are the twenty rules of formulating knowledge. You will notice that the first 16 rules revolve around making memories simple! Some of the rules strongly overlap. For example: do not learn if you do not understand is a form of applying the minimum information principle which again is a way of making things simple:

Do not learn if you do not understand Learn before you memorize—build the picture of the whole before you dismember it into simple items in SuperMemo. If the whole shows holes, review it again! Build upon the basics—never jump both feet into a complex manual because you may never see the end. Well remembered basics will help the remaining knowledge easily fit in Stick to the minimum information principle—if you continue forgetting an item, try to make it as simple as possible. If it does not help, see the remaining rules (cloze deletion, graphics, mnemonic techniques, converting sets into enumerations, etc.) Cloze deletion is easy and effective—completing a deleted word or phrase is not only an effective way of learning. Most of all, it greatly speeds up formulating knowledge and is highly recommended for beginners Use imagery—a picture is worth a thousand words Use mnemonic techniques—read about peg lists and mind maps. Study the books by Tony Buzan. Learn how to convert memories into funny pictures. You won’t have problems with phone numbers and complex figures Graphic deletion is as good as cloze deletion—obstructing parts of a picture is great for learning anatomy, geography and more Avoid sets—larger sets are virtually un-memorizable unless you convert them into enumerations! Avoid enumerations—enumerations are also hard to remember but can be dealt with using cloze deletion Combat interference—even the simplest items can be completely intractable if they are similar to other items. Use examples, context cues, vivid illustrations, refer to emotions, and to your personal life Optimize wording—like you reduce mathematical equations, you can reduce complex sentences into smart, compact and enjoyable maxims Refer to other memories—building memories on other memories generates a coherent and hermetic structure that forgetting is less likely to affect. Build upon the basics and use planned redundancy to fill in the gaps Personalize and provide examples—personalization might be the most effective way of building upon other memories. Your personal life is a gold mine of facts and events to refer to. As long as you build a collection for yourself, use personalization richly to build upon well established memories Rely on emotional states—emotions are related to memories. If you learn a fact in the sate of sadness, you are more likely to recall it if when you are sad. Some memories can induce emotions and help you employ this property of the brain in remembering Context cues simplify wording—providing context is a way of simplifying memories, building upon earlier knowledge and avoiding interference Redundancy does not contradict minimum information principle—some forms of redundancy are welcome. There is little harm in memorizing the same fact as viewed from different angles. Passive and active approach is particularly practicable in learning word-pairs. Memorizing derivation steps in problem solving is a way towards boosting your intellectual powers! Provide sources—sources help you manage the learning process, updating your knowledge, judging its reliability, or importance Provide date stamping—time stamping is useful for volatile knowledge that changes in time Prioritize—effective learning is all about prioritizing. In incremental reading you can start from badly formulated knowledge and improve its shape as you proceed with learning (in proportion to the cost of inappropriate formulation). If need be, you can review pieces of knowledge again, split it into parts, reformulate, reprioritize, or delete. See also: Incremental reading, Devouring knowledge, Flow of knowledge, Using tasklists

Barry_Cotter 1 Apr 2015 5:56 UTC
2 points
in reply to: banx’s comment on: Open thread, Apr. 01 - Apr. 05, 2015
It may not be an effective way to help people but it sure as hell helps you up to do it up to three times a year. All hail longevity! I regret I am in a rush so I can’t link but I believe RomeoSteverns’ post on optimising your health has the references.

Barry_Cotter 13 Jan 2015 14:14 UTC
5 points
on: Open thread, Jan. 12 - Jan. 18, 2015
I have heard that in economics and possibly other social sciences Ph.D. students can staple together three journal articles, call it a dissertation and get awarded their doctorate. But I’ve recently read “Publication, Publication” by Gary King, which I interpret as saying a very bright and hardworking undergraduate can write a quantitative political science article in the space of a semester, while carrying a normal class load.

This is confusing. Now, Dr. King teaches at Harvard so all his students are smart and it’s two students writing one paper but this still seems insane. I’m guessing a full course load is around 6 classes a term and people are to write a journal article or close approximation thereof in a semester when three of them will suffice to get a Ph.D. and many people fail out of said degree who are very, very smart.

Where am I confused? Is research not that hard, a stapler thesis a myth or these class projects not strictly comparable to real papers?

http://gking.harvard.edu/classes/advanced-quantitative-political-methodology-government-2001-government-1002-and-e-2001

Abstract: I show herein how to write a publishable paper by beginning with the replication of a published article. This strategy seems to work well for class projects in producing papers that ultimately get published, helping to professionalize students into the discipline, and teaching them the scientific norms of the free exchange of academic information. I begin by briefly revisiting the prominent debate on replication our discipline had a decade ago and some of the progress made in data sharing since.

Citation: King, Gary. 2006. Publication, Publication, PS: Political Science and Politics 39: 119–125. Copy at http://j.mp/iTXtrg

Barry_Cotter 22 Dec 2014 15:01 UTC
2 points
in reply to: casebash’s comment on: Munchkining for Fun and Profit, Ideas, Experience, Successes, Failures
They have examination centres in many, many countries, the USA included.

Centres in the United Kingdom Belfast, Darlington, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Jersey, Leeds, London, Newcastle, Newport (Gwent), Sheffield, Southport, Titchfield, York.

Centres outside the UK Alphabetical list of current non-UK centres, including some that have not been used for a few years.

Our professional exams are not offered in Hong Kong. Instead, the Hong Kong Statistical Society provides professional exams of an equivalent standard.

Anguilla: The Valley Australia: Perth; Sydney Austria: Vienna Barbados: St Michael Bermuda: Paget Brunei: Darussalam Canada: Montreal; Victoria, BC; Yukon College Cyprus: Nicosia Germany: Cologne Ghana: Accra Gibraltar: Gibraltar Greece: Athens Grenada: St Georges Guyana: Georgetown India: Mumbai Ireland: Dublin Italy: Rome Jamaica: Kingston Japan: Tokyo Kenya: Nairobi Korea (South): Seoul Lithuania: Vilnius Malawi: Lilongwe Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur; Kuching Malta: Valletta Mauritius: Port Louis Montserrat: Brades Netherlands: Amsterdam New Zealand: Wellington Nigeria: Lagos Philippines: Pasig City Poland: Katowice St Helena: Prince Andrew School St Kitts: Basseterre St Lucia: Castries Singapore: Singapore South Africa: Johannesburg Spain: Barcelona; Madrid Switzerland: Baden Tanzania: Dar es Salaam The Gambia: Banjul Trinidad: Port of Spain USA: Birmingham, Alabama; Memphis, Tennessee; San Diego, California; Washington, DC Zambia: Lusaka Zimbabwe: Harare

Barry_Cotter 27 Oct 2014 5:22 UTC
2 points
in reply to: ChrisHallquist’s comment on: Non-standard politics

(Friedman, among other things, supported a version of guaranteed basic income. To which today’s GOP mainstream would probably say, “but if we do that, it will just make poor people even lazier!”)

He supported a large negative income tax for those on the lowest (earned) incomes, tapering off to zero, then positive as earned income increased. This is really very far from a guaranteed basic income.

Barry_Cotter 30 Sep 2014 5:49 UTC
5 points
in reply to: leplen’s comment on: Assessing oneself

I think you may be over-estimating the intelligence required to be a physicist. I don’t know what constitutes a meaningful contribution to physics, but there are certainly productive tenured professors who are not in the top 25% of quantitative ability.

This is not true. According to Kaufman, Alan S. (2009). IQ Testing 101. New York: Springer Publishing MDs, JDs and PhDs have an average IQ of 125+. PhDs in Physics are going to have higher quantitative scores than that. I regret that being behind the Great Firewall I can’t source this but Steve Hsu wrote on his blog, infoproc.blogspot.com that he thinks the average professor of Physics is 1 in 100,000 in intelligence. I may be misremembering badly and the 1 in 100,000 could be anything from has a doctorate in Physics to is an outstanding contributor to Physics.

The idea that there are tenured professors of Physics who are just barely in the top quartile of quantitaive IQ is mindboggling. There will be few enough professors of English with quantitative IQs that low.

Barry_Cotter 24 Aug 2014 5:45 UTC
6 points
in reply to: Metus’s comment on: Group Rationality Diary, August 1-15
Introduction to the History of Psychology Good, well written, excellent summary and glossary at the end of each chapter. I’m not finished but so far my only complaint is the obvious political bent in the intelligence chapter.

Psychology, Themes and Variations Clear, concise and comprehensive introductory psychology textbook. Reading the history book has made me aware of some minor errors in it but nothing damning, just a reminder that if you’re really interested this is the first book to read, not the last.

Social Psychology Very far from the first social psychology textbook I’ve read. Doesn’t stand out in my mind. Covers all the classic social psychology experiments that are in the Sequences and more. Almost certain to be substantially revised next edition in light of the big replication project in social psychology, seeing as some of the most famous social psychology experiments just don’t replicate.

Developmental Psychology: Childhood and Adolescence Comprehensive review of the subject, informative, well written.

Barry_Cotter 15 Aug 2014 11:39 UTC
1 point
on: Group Rationality Diary, August 1-15
Success: Still exercising, have now read three and a half psychology textbooks, still using Anki for learning Chinese, moved from contextless Anki cards to multiple cloze massive context as recommmended by AJATT.com My savings continue to grow, which is great.

Failures: Opening Habit RPG got aversive due to me constantly dying due to missing dailies on programming and diary writing so I stopped. I have just realised I should take them out of dailies and put them in habits. I also really need to start doing to do lists and planning things, considering what I want to do, etc.

Barry_Cotter 10 Aug 2014 7:21 UTC
8 points
in reply to: gjm’s comment on: Open thread, August 4 − 10, 2014
Academia in the US is much leftier than the population at large. I believe it was Jonathan Haidt who went looking for examples of social conservatives in his field and people kept nomimating Philip Tetlock who would not describe himself thus. At a conference Dr.Haidt was looking for a show of hands for various political positions. Republicans were substantially less popular than Communists. Psychology is about as left wing as sociology and disciplines vary but academia is a great deal to the left of the US general population.

Barry_Cotter 8 Aug 2014 10:26 UTC
3 points
in reply to: gjm’s comment on: Open thread, August 4 − 10, 2014
I believe his political views are somewhere between way to the left of the Democratic Party and socialism. He dislikes the entire field of intelligence research in psychology because it’s ideologically inconvenient. He criticises anything that he can find to criticise about it. Think of him as Stephen Jay Gould, but much smarter and more honest.

Barry_Cotter 30 Jun 2014 13:52 UTC
4 points
on: Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014
Where could one find many, many past exam papers for university undergraduate courses? I find attempting them under exam conditions the ideal way of preparing for exams, and really excellent at pointing out where there are gaps in my knowledge and I need to revise. I’m particularly interested in psychology exam papers.

Barry_Cotter 3 Jun 2014 14:04 UTC
1 point
in reply to: kalium’s comment on: Brainstorming for post topics
Please write about this or link me to someone who has already. Congratulations on your escape.

Barry_Cotter 22 May 2014 14:07 UTC
0 points
in reply to: polymathwannabe’s comment on: Open Thread, May 19 − 25, 2014
Why haven’t you gone back to college for a Masters in English Literature or something along those lines? Robin Hanson was 35 before he got his Ph.D. in Economics and he’s doing ok. The market for humanities scholars is not as forgiving as that for Economics but that’s what you want, right?

Barry_Cotter 21 May 2014 0:42 UTC
13 points
in reply to: polymathwannabe’s comment on: Open Thread, May 19 − 25, 2014
One can read in one’s spare time or learn languages or act. If one does not come from wealth not majoring in something remunerative in college is a mistake if you will actually want money later.

He didn’t dismiss the humanities he said studying them at university was a poor decision.

Barry_Cotter 18 May 2014 22:46 UTC
0 points
in reply to: hamnox’s comment on: Group Rationality Diary, May 16-31

How are your todos functioning for long-term repeating tasks, or tasks that have a long while before they become actionable?

Dailies, forget about it or Boomerang.

Read any really interesting textbooks lately?

Cambridge Handbook of Expert Performance and Psychology, Themes and Variations are it so far. They are large tomes so I feel okay about going so slowly.