Archive
Sequences
About
Search
Log In
Questions
Events
Shortform
Alignment Forum
AF Comments
Home
Featured
All
Tags
Recent
Comments
RSS
Pascal’s Mugging
Tag
Relevant
New
Old
Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Oct 19, 2007, 11:37 PM
112
points
354
comments
4
min read
LW
link
[Question]
“Fanatical” Longtermists: Why is Pascal’s Wager wrong?
Yitz
Jul 27, 2022, 4:16 AM
3
points
7
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
May 8, 2013, 12:43 AM
74
points
402
comments
26
min read
LW
link
[Question]
Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal’s Mugging to make an AGI behave?
Chris_Leong
Jun 15, 2022, 8:33 AM
7
points
17
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Desiderata for an Adversarial Prior
Shmi
Nov 9, 2022, 11:45 PM
13
points
2
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Dissolve: The Petty Crimes of Blaise Pascal
SebastianG
Aug 12, 2022, 8:04 PM
17
points
4
comments
6
min read
LW
link
No, I won’t go there, it feels like you’re trying to Pascal-mug me
Rupert
Jul 11, 2018, 1:37 AM
9
points
0
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Observed Pascal’s Mugging
[deleted]
Jun 28, 2011, 3:53 PM
36
points
61
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Muggle Pays
Zvi
Dec 16, 2017, 8:40 PM
25
points
17
comments
4
min read
LW
link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)
Pascal’s Mugging for bounded utility functions
Benya
Dec 6, 2012, 10:28 PM
18
points
49
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Expected utility, unlosing agents, and Pascal’s mugging
Stuart_Armstrong
Jul 28, 2014, 6:05 PM
32
points
54
comments
5
min read
LW
link
Overpopulation FAQs
Zero Contradictions
Aug 10, 2024, 4:21 AM
−12
points
7
comments
1
min read
LW
link
(zerocontradictions.net)
More on the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Prior
AlexMennen
Feb 26, 2018, 11:53 PM
16
points
4
comments
9
min read
LW
link
Being Half-Rational About Pascal’s Wager is Even Worse
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Apr 18, 2013, 5:20 AM
62
points
162
comments
9
min read
LW
link
Demography and Destiny
Zero Contradictions
Jul 21, 2024, 8:34 PM
6
points
11
comments
1
min read
LW
link
(thewaywardaxolotl.blogspot.com)
Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty
AlexMennen
Dec 14, 2017, 6:38 PM
41
points
47
comments
11
min read
LW
link
[Question]
What qualities does an AGI need to have to realize the risk of false vacuum, without hardcoding physics theories into it?
RationalSieve
Feb 3, 2023, 4:00 PM
1
point
4
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Should we maximize the Geometric Expectation of Utility?
A.H.
Apr 17, 2024, 10:37 AM
5
points
17
comments
9
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Mugging and the Order of Quantification
SorenJ
May 10, 2024, 6:34 PM
11
points
3
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s mugging in reward learning
Stuart_Armstrong
Nov 5, 2017, 7:44 PM
9
points
5
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Could Roko’s basilisk acausally bargain with a paperclip maximizer?
Christopher King
Mar 13, 2023, 6:21 PM
1
point
8
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Gift
Bongo
Dec 25, 2010, 7:42 PM
13
points
46
comments
1
min read
LW
link
[Question]
(i no longer endorse this post) - cryonics is a pascal’s mugging?
KvmanThinking
Oct 25, 2024, 11:24 PM
−12
points
4
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Solving Pascal’s Wager using dynamic programming
Paul Wilczewski
Jul 10, 2024, 6:09 PM
1
point
0
comments
5
min read
LW
link
AGI is uncontrollable, alignment is impossible
Donatas Lučiūnas
Mar 19, 2023, 5:49 PM
−12
points
21
comments
1
min read
LW
link
[Question]
Has Pascal’s Mugging problem been completely solved yet?
EniScien
Nov 6, 2022, 12:52 PM
3
points
11
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Consider Reconsidering Pascal’s Mugging
Rafael Harth
Jan 3, 2018, 12:03 AM
5
points
9
comments
3
min read
LW
link
An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging
[deleted]
Dec 9, 2014, 7:50 AM
9
points
36
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Introduction to Expected Value Fanaticism
Petra Kosonen
Feb 14, 2025, 7:05 PM
9
points
8
comments
1
min read
LW
link
(utilitarianism.net)
Strongmanning Pascal’s Mugging
Pentashagon
Feb 20, 2013, 12:36 PM
4
points
20
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Hyperbolic Discounting and Pascal’s Mugging
Andrew Keenan Richardson
Dec 23, 2023, 9:55 PM
9
points
0
comments
7
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Muggle (short version)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
May 5, 2013, 11:36 PM
48
points
53
comments
11
min read
LW
link
[Question]
Is acausal extortion possible?
sisyphus
Nov 11, 2022, 7:48 PM
−20
points
35
comments
3
min read
LW
link
[Question]
How do bounded utility functions work if you are uncertain how close to the bound your utility is?
Ghatanathoah
Oct 6, 2021, 9:31 PM
13
points
26
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal’s Mugging
Kaj_Sotala
Sep 16, 2015, 10:45 AM
27
points
176
comments
5
min read
LW
link
The Lifespan Dilemma
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Sep 10, 2009, 6:45 PM
61
points
220
comments
7
min read
LW
link
Comments on Pascal’s Mugging
[deleted]
May 3, 2012, 9:23 PM
15
points
31
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Tactics against Pascal’s Mugging
ArisKatsaris
Apr 25, 2013, 12:07 AM
26
points
54
comments
8
min read
LW
link
What do you mean by Pascal’s mugging?
XiXiDu
Nov 20, 2014, 4:38 PM
10
points
24
comments
2
min read
LW
link
A Thought on Pascal’s Mugging
komponisto
Dec 10, 2010, 6:08 AM
15
points
159
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Model Uncertainty, Pascalian Reasoning and Utilitarianism
multifoliaterose
Jun 14, 2011, 3:19 AM
35
points
155
comments
5
min read
LW
link
Pascal’s Mugging—Penalizing the prior probability?
XiXiDu
May 17, 2011, 2:44 PM
12
points
30
comments
2
min read
LW
link
No comments.
Back to top
N
W
F
A
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Customize appearance
Current theme:
default
A
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Invert colors
Reset to defaults
OK
Cancel
Hi, I’m Bobby the Basilisk! Click on the minimize button (
) to minimize the theme tweaker window, so that you can see what the page looks like with the current tweaked values. (But remember,
the changes won’t be saved until you click “OK”!
)
Theme tweaker help
Show Bobby the Basilisk
OK
Cancel