Pascal’s Mugging

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Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 19, 2007, 11:37 PM

112 points

354 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] “Fanatical” Longtermists: Why is Pascal’s Wager wrong?

YitzJul 27, 2022, 4:16 AM

3 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 8, 2013, 12:43 AM

74 points

402 comments26 min readLW link

[Question] Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal’s Mugging to make an AGI behave?

Chris_LeongJun 15, 2022, 8:33 AM

7 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

Desiderata for an Adversarial Prior

ShmiNov 9, 2022, 11:45 PM

13 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Dissolve: The Petty Crimes of Blaise Pascal

SebastianG Aug 12, 2022, 8:04 PM

17 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

No, I won’t go there, it feels like you’re trying to Pascal-mug me

RupertJul 11, 2018, 1:37 AM

9 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Observed Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]Jun 28, 2011, 3:53 PM

36 points

61 comments1 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle Pays

ZviDec 16, 2017, 8:40 PM

25 points

17 comments4 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pascal’s Mugging for bounded utility functions

BenyaDec 6, 2012, 10:28 PM

18 points

49 comments2 min readLW link

Expected utility, unlosing agents, and Pascal’s mugging

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 28, 2014, 6:05 PM

32 points

54 comments5 min readLW link

Overpopulation FAQs

Zero ContradictionsAug 10, 2024, 4:21 AM

−12 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

(zerocontradictions.net)

More on the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Prior

AlexMennenFeb 26, 2018, 11:53 PM

16 points

4 comments9 min readLW link

Being Half-Rational About Pascal’s Wager is Even Worse

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 18, 2013, 5:20 AM

62 points

162 comments9 min readLW link

Demography and Destiny

Zero ContradictionsJul 21, 2024, 8:34 PM

6 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

(thewaywardaxolotl.blogspot.com)

Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty

AlexMennenDec 14, 2017, 6:38 PM

41 points

47 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] What qualities does an AGI need to have to realize the risk of false vacuum, without hardcoding physics theories into it?

RationalSieveFeb 3, 2023, 4:00 PM

1 point

4 comments1 min readLW link

Should we maximize the Geometric Expectation of Utility?

A.H.Apr 17, 2024, 10:37 AM

5 points

17 comments9 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging and the Order of Quantification

SorenJMay 10, 2024, 6:34 PM

11 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Pascal’s mugging in reward learning

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 5, 2017, 7:44 PM

9 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Could Roko’s basilisk acausally bargain with a paperclip maximizer?

Christopher KingMar 13, 2023, 6:21 PM

1 point

8 comments1 min readLW link

Pascal’s Gift

BongoDec 25, 2010, 7:42 PM

13 points

46 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] (i no longer endorse this post) - cryonics is a pascal’s mugging?

KvmanThinkingOct 25, 2024, 11:24 PM

−12 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Solving Pascal’s Wager using dynamic programming

Paul WilczewskiJul 10, 2024, 6:09 PM

1 point

0 comments5 min readLW link

AGI is uncontrollable, alignment is impossible

Donatas LučiūnasMar 19, 2023, 5:49 PM

−12 points

21 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Has Pascal’s Mugging problem been completely solved yet?

EniScienNov 6, 2022, 12:52 PM

3 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

Consider Reconsidering Pascal’s Mugging

Rafael HarthJan 3, 2018, 12:03 AM

5 points

9 comments3 min readLW link

An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]Dec 9, 2014, 7:50 AM

9 points

36 comments1 min readLW link

Introduction to Expected Value Fanaticism

Petra KosonenFeb 14, 2025, 7:05 PM

9 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

(utilitarianism.net)

Strongmanning Pascal’s Mugging

PentashagonFeb 20, 2013, 12:36 PM

4 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

Hyperbolic Discounting and Pascal’s Mugging

Andrew Keenan RichardsonDec 23, 2023, 9:55 PM

9 points

0 comments7 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle (short version)

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 5, 2013, 11:36 PM

48 points

53 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Is acausal extortion possible?

sisyphusNov 11, 2022, 7:48 PM

−20 points

35 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How do bounded utility functions work if you are uncertain how close to the bound your utility is?

GhatanathoahOct 6, 2021, 9:31 PM

13 points

26 comments2 min readLW link

Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal’s Mugging

Kaj_SotalaSep 16, 2015, 10:45 AM

27 points

176 comments5 min readLW link

The Lifespan Dilemma

Eliezer YudkowskySep 10, 2009, 6:45 PM

61 points

220 comments7 min readLW link

Comments on Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]May 3, 2012, 9:23 PM

15 points

31 comments2 min readLW link

Tactics against Pascal’s Mugging

ArisKatsarisApr 25, 2013, 12:07 AM

26 points

54 comments8 min readLW link

What do you mean by Pascal’s mugging?

XiXiDuNov 20, 2014, 4:38 PM

10 points

24 comments2 min readLW link

A Thought on Pascal’s Mugging

komponistoDec 10, 2010, 6:08 AM

15 points

159 comments1 min readLW link

Model Uncertainty, Pascalian Reasoning and Utilitarianism

multifoliateroseJun 14, 2011, 3:19 AM

35 points

155 comments5 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging—Penalizing the prior probability?

XiXiDuMay 17, 2011, 2:44 PM

12 points

30 comments2 min readLW link

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