Hind­sight Bias

TagLast edit: 2 Oct 2020 0:16 UTC by Ruby

Hindsight Bias is a tendency to overestimate the foreseeability of events that have actually happened. I.e., subjects given information about X, and asked to assign a probability that X will happen, assign much lower probabilities than subjects who are given the same information about X, are told that X actually happened, and asked to estimate the foreseeable probability of X. Experiments also show that instructing subjects to “avoid hindsight bias” has little or no effect.

Blog posts

See also

Hind­sight bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky16 Aug 2007 21:58 UTC
63 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Hind­sight De­val­ues Science

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Aug 2007 19:39 UTC
157 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Re­gret, Hind­sight Bias and First-Per­son Experience

Stabilizer20 Apr 2014 2:10 UTC
12 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing Pre­dic­tions in Hindsight

Zvi16 Apr 2020 17:20 UTC
54 points
8 comments27 min readLW link

At­tempts to De­bias Hind­sight Back­fire!

Gram_Stone13 Jun 2016 16:13 UTC
13 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Stranger Than History

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Sep 2007 18:57 UTC
89 points
335 comments1 min readLW link

Be­ware the Unsurprised

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 May 2007 22:45 UTC
23 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Pre-Hind­sight Prompt: Why did 2021 NOT bring a re­turn to nor­malcy?

mike_hawke6 Dec 2020 17:35 UTC
22 points
13 comments1 min readLW link
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