What, no, Oli says OP would do a fine job and make grants in rationality community-building, AI welfare, right-wing policy stuff, invertebrate welfare, etc. but it’s constrained by GV.
[Disagreeing since this is currently the top comment and people might read it rather than listen to the podcast.]
I don’t currently believe this, and don’t think I said so. I do think the GV constraints are big, but also my overall assessment of the net-effect of Open Phil actions is net bad, even if you control for GV, though the calculus gets a lot messier and I am much less confident. Some of that is because of the evidential update from how they handled the GV situation, but also IMO Open Phil has made many other quite grievous mistakes.
My guess is an Open Phil that was continued to be run by Holden would probably be good for the world. I have many disagreements with Holden, and it’s definitely still a high variance situation, but I’ve historically been impressed with his judgement on many issues that I’ve seen OP mess up in recent years.
Last year I read through the past ~4 years of OpenPhil grants, was briefly reassured by seeing a bunch of good grants, then noticed that almost all of the ones which went to places which seemed to be doing work which might plausibly help with superintelligence were before Holden left. Then I was much less reassured.
What, no, Oli says OP would do a fine job and make grants in rationality community-building, AI welfare, right-wing policy stuff, invertebrate welfare, etc. but it’s constrained by GV.
[Disagreeing since this is currently the top comment and people might read it rather than listen to the podcast.]
I don’t currently believe this, and don’t think I said so. I do think the GV constraints are big, but also my overall assessment of the net-effect of Open Phil actions is net bad, even if you control for GV, though the calculus gets a lot messier and I am much less confident. Some of that is because of the evidential update from how they handled the GV situation, but also IMO Open Phil has made many other quite grievous mistakes.
My guess is an Open Phil that was continued to be run by Holden would probably be good for the world. I have many disagreements with Holden, and it’s definitely still a high variance situation, but I’ve historically been impressed with his judgement on many issues that I’ve seen OP mess up in recent years.
Last year I read through the past ~4 years of OpenPhil grants, was briefly reassured by seeing a bunch of good grants, then noticed that almost all of the ones which went to places which seemed to be doing work which might plausibly help with superintelligence were before Holden left. Then I was much less reassured.
Reasonable, I don’t know much about the situation