And then one of my current stories is that at some point, mostly after FTX when people were fed up with listening to some vague EA conservative consensus, a bunch of people started ignoring that advice and finally started saying things publicly (like the FLI letter, Eliezer’s time piece, the CAIS letter, Ian Hogarth’s piece). And then that’s the thing that’s actually been moving things in the policy space.
My impression is that this was driven by developments in AI, which created enough of a sense that other people might predict that other people would take concern seriously, because they could all just see ChatGPT. And this emboldened people. They had more of a sense of tractability.
And Eliezer, in particular, went on a podcast, and it went better than he anticipated, so he decided to do more outreach.
My impression is that this is basically 0 to do with FTX?
Eliezer and Max and Dan could give their own takes here. My guess is there was a breaking of EA consensus on taking the PR-conservative route, and then these things started happening. I think some of that breaking was due to FTX.
Eliezer started talking about high P(doom) around the Palmcone which I think was more like peak FTX hype. And it seemed like his subsequent comms were part of a trend that began with the MIRI dialogues the year before. I’d bet against FTX collapse being that causal at least for him.
Yes, but I’m drawing a line from ‘MIRI dialogues’ through Death With Dignity and modeling Eliezer generally and I think the line just points roughly at the Time piece without FTX.
My impression is that this was driven by developments in AI, which created enough of a sense that other people might predict that other people would take concern seriously, because they could all just see ChatGPT. And this emboldened people. They had more of a sense of tractability.
And Eliezer, in particular, went on a podcast, and it went better than he anticipated, so he decided to do more outreach.
My impression is that this is basically 0 to do with FTX?
Eliezer and Max and Dan could give their own takes here. My guess is there was a breaking of EA consensus on taking the PR-conservative route, and then these things started happening. I think some of that breaking was due to FTX.
Eliezer started talking about high P(doom) around the Palmcone which I think was more like peak FTX hype. And it seemed like his subsequent comms were part of a trend that began with the MIRI dialogues the year before. I’d bet against FTX collapse being that causal at least for him.
I don’t think Death with Dignity or the List O’ Doom posts are at all FTX-collapse related. I am talking about things like the Time piece.
Yes, but I’m drawing a line from ‘MIRI dialogues’ through Death With Dignity and modeling Eliezer generally and I think the line just points roughly at the Time piece without FTX.