The US should set in a motion a process to gradually and peacefully hand over Taiwan to China in the next ~12 years.
China cares more about Taiwan than anything else. China is stronger and will be even stronger.
China’s GDP is near that of the US. China’s PPP is even 50% larger. China is ahead in many industries. The US Navy is a disaster. China has made a massive military buildup. Taiwan is much closer to China. China care more about Taiwan than anybody else.
A peaceful transition handover has precedence—see the British handing over Hong Kong.
China will occupy Taiwan within the next twelve years, by peaceful means or by force as they have repeatedly and clearly stated. The US military is no longer powerful enough to defend Taiwan against a determined Chinese attack. There is a small but serious chance that Xi will attack in 2027, that is next year.
One shouldn’t be under the illusion that the Chinese government is all peaches but their rhetoric has consistently been measured, peace-seeking and focused on reclaiming just Taiwan—not a general expansionist or militarist ideology. Historically China, unlike Russia, has not been an expansionist power. Their last war was in 1978 (with Vietnam).
What would be the benefits? World peace is probably good. Hot and cold wars will definitely exarbate AI race dynamics. Wars generically make everything more crazy. Safety will likely take a backseat to winning. On the other hand, wars also make governments more competent.
What would be the downsides? It would hurt the precedent of international law. It could be appeasement.
The main dynamic is avoiding a rally around the flag effect in China: even if the US & Taiwan would beat off an initial attack it cannot win in the long-run. The Chinese people will almost certainly redouble their resolve. This would strengthen the CCP, not weaken it.
Through a peaceful transition bloodshed may be avoided. Concessions on AI safety and chip manufacturing may also be achieved. A very daring negotiation would put nukes on Japan and Korea. A very daring negotiation would yield Taiwan but leave TSMC factories with planted explosives so as to prevent a Chinese takeover of chip manufacturing. This could be manned by an international peacekeeping force that would blow up the factories in case the CCP would try and grab the factories.
This analysis assumes that the government of Taiwan has no power, that the US is the one to negotiate with. If you are thinking of this, the question is not what deals the US would agree to, but what deal Taiwan would agree to. The US is not actually in a position to veto a reunification agreed between both governments, though they likely would not be able to backstop it either (which creates a little negotiating friction).
All of these concession are concessions to the US. What really matters for a peaceful settlement (since Taiwan can destroy the surplus) is whether the CCP can give meaningful concessions on the terms of reunification with Taiwan.
That is to say, there is no “process to gradually and peacefully hand over Taiwan to China” as an option for the US. It might exist for the government of Taiwan, but because the US does not actually control any of it’s partners among middle powers.
as for “China care more about Taiwan than anybody else. ”
This is false
The US might care less, but the government of Taiwan probably cares more.
yes. if we were capable of protecting them, we should have done so. not sure what other conclusion to draw.
if by your post you intended something like “it is in the US and China’s mutual best interest to take the following course of action [...]” then, sure—i strongly agree with this! but it seems prudent to phrase this as a prediction, rather than as a moral recommendation.
The US should set in a motion a process to gradually and peacefully hand over Taiwan to China in the next ~12 years.
China cares more about Taiwan than anything else. China is stronger and will be even stronger.
China’s GDP is near that of the US. China’s PPP is even 50% larger. China is ahead in many industries. The US Navy is a disaster. China has made a massive military buildup. Taiwan is much closer to China. China care more about Taiwan than anybody else.
A peaceful transition handover has precedence—see the British handing over Hong Kong.
China will occupy Taiwan within the next twelve years, by peaceful means or by force as they have repeatedly and clearly stated. The US military is no longer powerful enough to defend Taiwan against a determined Chinese attack. There is a small but serious chance that Xi will attack in 2027, that is next year.
One shouldn’t be under the illusion that the Chinese government is all peaches but their rhetoric has consistently been measured, peace-seeking and focused on reclaiming just Taiwan—not a general expansionist or militarist ideology. Historically China, unlike Russia, has not been an expansionist power. Their last war was in 1978 (with Vietnam).
What would be the benefits? World peace is probably good. Hot and cold wars will definitely exarbate AI race dynamics. Wars generically make everything more crazy. Safety will likely take a backseat to winning. On the other hand, wars also make governments more competent.
What would be the downsides? It would hurt the precedent of international law. It could be appeasement.
The main dynamic is avoiding a rally around the flag effect in China: even if the US & Taiwan would beat off an initial attack it cannot win in the long-run. The Chinese people will almost certainly redouble their resolve. This would strengthen the CCP, not weaken it.
Through a peaceful transition bloodshed may be avoided. Concessions on AI safety and chip manufacturing may also be achieved. A very daring negotiation would put nukes on Japan and Korea. A very daring negotiation would yield Taiwan but leave TSMC factories with planted explosives so as to prevent a Chinese takeover of chip manufacturing. This could be manned by an international peacekeeping force that would blow up the factories in case the CCP would try and grab the factories.
This analysis assumes that the government of Taiwan has no power, that the US is the one to negotiate with. If you are thinking of this, the question is not what deals the US would agree to, but what deal Taiwan would agree to. The US is not actually in a position to veto a reunification agreed between both governments, though they likely would not be able to backstop it either (which creates a little negotiating friction).
All of these concession are concessions to the US. What really matters for a peaceful settlement (since Taiwan can destroy the surplus) is whether the CCP can give meaningful concessions on the terms of reunification with Taiwan.
That is to say, there is no “process to gradually and peacefully hand over Taiwan to China” as an option for the US. It might exist for the government of Taiwan, but because the US does not actually control any of it’s partners among middle powers.
as for “China care more about Taiwan than anybody else. ”
This is false
The US might care less, but the government of Taiwan probably cares more.
does the will of the taiwanese people have no bearing?
did the will of the Melian people ?
yes. if we were capable of protecting them, we should have done so. not sure what other conclusion to draw.
if by your post you intended something like “it is in the US and China’s mutual best interest to take the following course of action [...]” then, sure—i strongly agree with this! but it seems prudent to phrase this as a prediction, rather than as a moral recommendation.