Open problems in human rationality: guesses

A cou­ple months back Rae­mon wrote this ex­cel­lent ques­tion to which Scott Alexan­der shared his on­go­ing list. I think it would be great to have peo­ple try to give their cur­rent guesses for a lot of these. My guesses in a com­ment be­low. My in­tu­ition is that value is cre­ated in four ways from this:

1. Dis­cov­ery of things you didn’t re­al­ize you be­lieved in the pro­cess of writ­ing the an­swer.

2. Gen­er­a­tion of cruxes if peo­ple give you feed­back/​al­ter­na­tives for an­swers.

3. Real­iza­tion that your guess isn’t even wrong, but fun­da­men­tally wasn’t built from build­ing blocks that can, in prin­ci­ple, be re­ar­ranged to form a cor­rect an­swer.

4. Help in co­or­di­na­tion as peo­ple get a sense of what oth­ers be­lieve about nav­i­gat­ing this space. See­ing cog­ni­tive di­ver­sity on fun­da­men­tal ques­tions has helped me in this area.