I’m not actually sure people are miscalibrated here, at least for close friends? If someone accuses my best friend of murder, I really do think that they are much more likely to be lying than my friend is to have committed murder (barring exceptional circumstance like self-defense). This is entirely because of my judgement of their character, so that “when would I commit this crime?” really does tell me a lot about when they would.
People who are generally honest, law-abiding, and moral are in fact less likely to lie, break the law, and violate common morality.
It’s seems likely that people are miscalibrated about weaker links, though, due to the reasons you’ve cited, the bonds of friendship, and the way that ill-doers will act differently (consciously or unconsciously) around people they think they can get away with harming.
I’ll add to this: I think generally someone people kind and moral in one circumstance is Bayesian evidence of them being so in other circumstances, AND there are specific patterns of being sometimes kind and sometimes nasty that most people are under-aware of.
You have a good friend. They are always happy and cheerful. Once they hurt you by accident, but they sent you a cake the next day, and you forgave them before you could ask for an apology. They’ve had a couple people be mean to them in the past, and you feel sorry for them, but there’s been nothing but cheer between you.
The previous paragraph includes three traits of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (constant happy exterior, niceties instead of apologies, believing a story in which they’ve always been the victim), and thus the previous paragraph is in fact Bayesian evidence that they may be horrible to other people.
I’m not actually sure people are miscalibrated here, at least for close friends? If someone accuses my best friend of murder, I really do think that they are much more likely to be lying than my friend is to have committed murder (barring exceptional circumstance like self-defense). This is entirely because of my judgement of their character, so that “when would I commit this crime?” really does tell me a lot about when they would.
People who are generally honest, law-abiding, and moral are in fact less likely to lie, break the law, and violate common morality.
It’s seems likely that people are miscalibrated about weaker links, though, due to the reasons you’ve cited, the bonds of friendship, and the way that ill-doers will act differently (consciously or unconsciously) around people they think they can get away with harming.
I’ll add to this: I think generally someone people kind and moral in one circumstance is Bayesian evidence of them being so in other circumstances, AND there are specific patterns of being sometimes kind and sometimes nasty that most people are under-aware of.
You have a good friend. They are always happy and cheerful. Once they hurt you by accident, but they sent you a cake the next day, and you forgave them before you could ask for an apology. They’ve had a couple people be mean to them in the past, and you feel sorry for them, but there’s been nothing but cheer between you.
The previous paragraph includes three traits of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (constant happy exterior, niceties instead of apologies, believing a story in which they’ve always been the victim), and thus the previous paragraph is in fact Bayesian evidence that they may be horrible to other people.