[Question] Is LW making progress?

Some people have an intuition that with free exchange of ideas, the best ones will eventually come out on top. I’m less optimistic, so I ask if that’s really happening.

The alternative would be to have the same people talking about the same problems without accumulating anything. People would still make updates, but some would update in opposite directions, leaving the total distribution of ideas in the community largely unchanged. There would be occasional great ideas, but they would soon get buried in the archives, without leaving much of an impact. I have some hope we’re not living in that world and I want to see evidence to justify it.

One way to look at the question is to consider the sequences. They are 10 years old now. Are they in some way outdated? Are there some new and crucial ideas that they are missing?