I assume you mean the central example, some indisputably organic entities arriving from another star system on something indisputably like a “spacecraft”
Extraterrestrial in origin, biological or otherwise (their autonomous probes, for instance).
Hmm, I don’t even know how to identify something like that.
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Oh yeah, that would be fantastic! And it might happen, just probably not in the area of physics foundations. I looked over my posts and comments over the last 12 years or so, and there hasn’t been anything remotely close to what you are describing, as far as I can tell.
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Extraterrestrial in origin, biological or otherwise (their autonomous probes, for instance).
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Oh yeah, that would be fantastic! And it might happen, just probably not in the area of physics foundations. I looked over my posts and comments over the last 12 years or so, and there hasn’t been anything remotely close to what you are describing, as far as I can tell.
What is the largest amount that you’re willing to bet?
I have created a post here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up
+++
I have created a post for this bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up