Jack Clark: I continue to think things are pretty well on track for the sort of powerful AI system defined in machines of loving grace – buildable end of 2026, running many copies 2027. Of course, there are many reasons this could not occur, but lots of progress so far.
jeez, always disconcerting when people with more relevant info to me have shorter timelines than me
jeez, always disconcerting when people with more relevant info to me have shorter timelines than me
My current best read is that insiders at AI companies are overall more biased (towards pronouncing shorter timelines) than they are well-informed.
Not sure how you’d make the comparison, not sure I agree with it, but I definitely agree they are biased towards shorter timelines.