So does it mean that the AI time horizon will be exponential until the very last couple of doublings? This reminds me of my alternate model with the same result: if a project is split into a big finite amount of methods, then, once the AI learns a finite amount of skills, like the skill of reliably summarizing the requirements for each method (e.g. the names of other methods and variables, formats used, etc.) and of reliably implementing the methods, the AI becomes the SC without warning shots.
I made this post because I wanted to link to the image on substack and couldn’t put the image in there directly.
But yeah, the takeaway I got from this toy model is that the time horizon will be exponential until the last couple of doublings before it goes infinite. (Well, that’s what happens if half the progress is coming from imrpoved intercept and half from improved slope. The more it comes from improved slope, the more straightforwardly superexponential it is. In the real world I don’t think we have much of a clue yet where the progress is coming from.)
So does it mean that the AI time horizon will be exponential until the very last couple of doublings? This reminds me of my alternate model with the same result: if a project is split into a big finite amount of methods, then, once the AI learns a finite amount of skills, like the skill of reliably summarizing the requirements for each method (e.g. the names of other methods and variables, formats used, etc.) and of reliably implementing the methods, the AI becomes the SC without warning shots.
I made this post because I wanted to link to the image on substack and couldn’t put the image in there directly.
But yeah, the takeaway I got from this toy model is that the time horizon will be exponential until the last couple of doublings before it goes infinite. (Well, that’s what happens if half the progress is coming from imrpoved intercept and half from improved slope. The more it comes from improved slope, the more straightforwardly superexponential it is. In the real world I don’t think we have much of a clue yet where the progress is coming from.)