I made this post because I wanted to link to the image on substack and couldn’t put the image in there directly.
But yeah, the takeaway I got from this toy model is that the time horizon will be exponential until the last couple of doublings before it goes infinite. (Well, that’s what happens if half the progress is coming from imrpoved intercept and half from improved slope. The more it comes from improved slope, the more straightforwardly superexponential it is. In the real world I don’t think we have much of a clue yet where the progress is coming from.)
I made this post because I wanted to link to the image on substack and couldn’t put the image in there directly.
But yeah, the takeaway I got from this toy model is that the time horizon will be exponential until the last couple of doublings before it goes infinite. (Well, that’s what happens if half the progress is coming from imrpoved intercept and half from improved slope. The more it comes from improved slope, the more straightforwardly superexponential it is. In the real world I don’t think we have much of a clue yet where the progress is coming from.)