A related crazy-seeming market here is Trump’s exit date. Will he complete his first term? Predictit says 85% yes, betfair says 90% yes. The only way I can see that not happening is if he loses the election and quits out of spite or whatever, and I wouldn’t be confident enough to dismiss that out of hand. But Good judgment open doesn’t think it’s likely, 99% he completes his term. (I guess unless he quits on inauguration day?)
He might resign so Pence cod pardon him. I would be excited to sell 99s, but I would buy 85s.
I’d put “suicide or flight before inauguration day to avoid arrest ” at 2-3%, and death by accident or illness at another percent (would have said closer to 5% a few weeks ago). Not sure how anyone gets down to 85%, but 99% is too high.