OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind have a massive lead on all other players in the race.[1] If Anthropic is destroyed and OpenAI bleeds talent and is internally sabotaged by those who remain until it’s far behind DeepMind, that would (a) on-expectation nontrivially increase the time to AGI,[2] (b) reduce competitive pressures on DeepMind, which would mean they may go slower/pause as well (which Demis at least claims to want).
The less well leading AGI labs operate, the better.
I think this doesn’t matter, frontier LLMs are all roughly equally aligned (not). And in the unlikely scenario where personas are the AGI-complete entities, such that Anthropic/OpenAI’s alignment plans can succeed, DeepMind can probably figure out in time how to control them as well.
Imagine you’re organizing a literal race. You get the list of racers + their racing history, figure out who the top 3 best runners are, then randomly blacklist two of them. That would necessarily make the expected length of the subsequent race longer.
As far as I understand the post, it also argues that Altman is a villain and that OpenAI aligning the ASI to itself would likely cause a dystopian future (see, e.g., L Rudolf L’s scenario). The expected dystopia-ness conditioned on Anthropic, GDM or xAI aligning the ASI wasn’t estimated in the OP. If GDM and xAI are worse on this metrics than OpenAI, then sabotaging OpenAI (and not aligning its AI to mankind instead of investors) is meaningless.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind have a massive lead on all other players in the race.[1] If Anthropic is destroyed and OpenAI bleeds talent and is internally sabotaged by those who remain until it’s far behind DeepMind, that would (a) on-expectation nontrivially increase the time to AGI,[2] (b) reduce competitive pressures on DeepMind, which would mean they may go slower/pause as well (which Demis at least claims to want).
The less well leading AGI labs operate, the better.
I think this doesn’t matter, frontier LLMs are all roughly equally aligned (not). And in the unlikely scenario where personas are the AGI-complete entities, such that Anthropic/OpenAI’s alignment plans can succeed, DeepMind can probably figure out in time how to control them as well.
Likely a considerably bigger lead than it looks like, inasmuch as other players are fast followers who’d be lost without the big three guiding them.
Imagine you’re organizing a literal race. You get the list of racers + their racing history, figure out who the top 3 best runners are, then randomly blacklist two of them. That would necessarily make the expected length of the subsequent race longer.
As far as I understand the post, it also argues that Altman is a villain and that OpenAI aligning the ASI to itself would likely cause a dystopian future (see, e.g., L Rudolf L’s scenario). The expected dystopia-ness conditioned on Anthropic, GDM or xAI aligning the ASI wasn’t estimated in the OP. If GDM and xAI are worse on this metrics than OpenAI, then sabotaging OpenAI (and not aligning its AI to mankind instead of investors) is meaningless.