A few years ago, I received a hand-addressed package with my correct name and address on it; the return address was a completely unfamiliar name in a state I’ve never visited and have no friends in. The contents were three Asterix books in the original French which I had no use for, did not know of anyone who wanted, and could not in fact read.
N sevraq unq hfrq obbx-fjnccvat jrofvgr Obbxzbbpu gb trg zr fbzr cerfragf n juvyr cerivbhfyl naq unqa’g erzrzorerq gb hcqngr gur nqqerff jura trggvat gurfr sbe ure uhfonaq.
There’s a question of specificity too—you could make a high-confidence prediction that guvf cnpxntr jnf frag gb lbh qhr gb na reebe, abg vagragvbanyyl but there was a very wide possibility space for jub znqr jung xvaq bs reebe.
The idea of confidence levels only works at fairly high abstractions of predictions. Nobody is 90% confident of extremely precise predictions, only of predictions that will cover a large amount (90%, in fact) of near-infinite variety of future states of the universe.
I’ll start.
A few years ago, I received a hand-addressed package with my correct name and address on it; the return address was a completely unfamiliar name in a state I’ve never visited and have no friends in. The contents were three Asterix books in the original French which I had no use for, did not know of anyone who wanted, and could not in fact read.
N sevraq unq hfrq obbx-fjnccvat jrofvgr Obbxzbbpu gb trg zr fbzr cerfragf n juvyr cerivbhfyl naq unqa’g erzrzorerq gb hcqngr gur nqqerff jura trggvat gurfr sbe ure uhfonaq.
There’s a question of specificity too—you could make a high-confidence prediction that guvf cnpxntr jnf frag gb lbh qhr gb na reebe, abg vagragvbanyyl but there was a very wide possibility space for jub znqr jung xvaq bs reebe.
The idea of confidence levels only works at fairly high abstractions of predictions. Nobody is 90% confident of extremely precise predictions, only of predictions that will cover a large amount (90%, in fact) of near-infinite variety of future states of the universe.