There’s a question of specificity too—you could make a high-confidence prediction that guvf cnpxntr jnf frag gb lbh qhr gb na reebe, abg vagragvbanyyl but there was a very wide possibility space for jub znqr jung xvaq bs reebe.
The idea of confidence levels only works at fairly high abstractions of predictions. Nobody is 90% confident of extremely precise predictions, only of predictions that will cover a large amount (90%, in fact) of near-infinite variety of future states of the universe.
There’s a question of specificity too—you could make a high-confidence prediction that guvf cnpxntr jnf frag gb lbh qhr gb na reebe, abg vagragvbanyyl but there was a very wide possibility space for jub znqr jung xvaq bs reebe.
The idea of confidence levels only works at fairly high abstractions of predictions. Nobody is 90% confident of extremely precise predictions, only of predictions that will cover a large amount (90%, in fact) of near-infinite variety of future states of the universe.