I’ve expected to lose for a couple of months but I have to admit I’m still surprised by the score for Opus 4.6.
I now believe that very short timelines are more likely than not (though still with a heavy-tailed distribution). I’ll write soon about how my position has changed (and particularly how my model of what is going on with LLMs has held up—the predictions in that post were probably wrong, but certain “downstream” predictions e.g. difficulty of getting neuralese to work seem to have held up). Of course, my updates are not based only (or even primarily) on this specific metric. I’m pivoting towards research that looks likely to yield results sooner and career choices that provide more influence over the near term future.
In the meantime, Daniel should reach out to me with payment details. Congratulations on getting this right, though of course we both hoped you’d lose :)
Thanks Cole, kudos to you for being so willing to bet on your beliefs! Indeed, I am sad to have lost this bet. Please just give the money to GiveDirectly & send me a picture of the receipt. Thanks!
@Daniel Kokotajlo easily won our bet on task lengths:
I’ve expected to lose for a couple of months but I have to admit I’m still surprised by the score for Opus 4.6.
I now believe that very short timelines are more likely than not (though still with a heavy-tailed distribution). I’ll write soon about how my position has changed (and particularly how my model of what is going on with LLMs has held up—the predictions in that post were probably wrong, but certain “downstream” predictions e.g. difficulty of getting neuralese to work seem to have held up). Of course, my updates are not based only (or even primarily) on this specific metric. I’m pivoting towards research that looks likely to yield results sooner and career choices that provide more influence over the near term future.
In the meantime, Daniel should reach out to me with payment details. Congratulations on getting this right, though of course we both hoped you’d lose :)
Thanks Cole, kudos to you for being so willing to bet on your beliefs! Indeed, I am sad to have lost this bet. Please just give the money to GiveDirectly & send me a picture of the receipt. Thanks!
(I think you meant to say you’re sad to have won?)
Oops yeah