Quick answer without any reference, so probably biased towards my internal model: I don’t think we reached TAI yet because I believe that if you remove every application of AI in the world (to simplify the definitions, every product of ML), the vast majority of people wouldn’t see any difference, and probably some positive difference (less attention manipulation on social media for example).
Compare with removing every computing device, or removing electricity.
And taking as examples the AI we’re making now, I expect that your first two points are wrong: people are already trying to build AI into everything, and it’s basically always useless/not that much useful.
(An example of the disconnect between AI as thought about here or in research lab, and practical application, is that AFAIK, nobody knows how to make money with RL)
The question of whether we have enoigh resources to scale to TAI right now is one I haven’t thought about enough for a decent answer, but you can find discussions of it on LW.
Quick answer without any reference, so probably biased towards my internal model: I don’t think we reached TAI yet because I believe that if you remove every application of AI in the world (to simplify the definitions, every product of ML), the vast majority of people wouldn’t see any difference, and probably some positive difference (less attention manipulation on social media for example).
Compare with removing every computing device, or removing electricity.
And taking as examples the AI we’re making now, I expect that your first two points are wrong: people are already trying to build AI into everything, and it’s basically always useless/not that much useful.
(An example of the disconnect between AI as thought about here or in research lab, and practical application, is that AFAIK, nobody knows how to make money with RL)
The question of whether we have enoigh resources to scale to TAI right now is one I haven’t thought about enough for a decent answer, but you can find discussions of it on LW.