My stance is: “If a slot machine game gives the most ROI, then I’ll make slot machine games.” So, if a cow clicker gives the most ROI, then I’ll build a cow clicker. :)
Given how little money the average gamer spends, it seems to me that earning N dollars from FarmVille might even create more disutility overall (in the form of wasted time) than obtaining the same N dollars by robbing somebody. If that’s true, then LW readers who adopt your strategy but start with a different background (e.g. combat instead of game-making) should start robbing people and donating the proceeds to SingInst.
ETA: on further thought, disregard this comment, it’s wrong. If you completely ignore the cost to society, then saving the world by robbery still requires an opportunity to make lots of money from robbery. Otherwise getting a high-paying job seems more cost-effective, and starting a startup even better than that. I’m sorry. Continue doing what you’re doing :-)
If that’s true, then LW readers who adopt your strategy but start with a different background (...) should start robbing people and donating the proceeds to SingInst.
So this is why Eliezer is always priming his readers with “rationality as martial arts”! :D
Beware the X-Rational Ninja—he will extrapolate your volition and steal your money! Then he will give you two boxes and you can choose to take one or two of them. If you choose one box, it contains all your stolen money and an authographed edition of HP:MoR; but if you choose two boxes, the first one is empty. (The second box always contains a yearly free subscription to a Rationalist Cow Clicker, where you can click on cows representing your cognitive biases.)
My stance is: “If a slot machine game gives the most ROI, then I’ll make slot machine games.”
So, if a cow clicker gives the most ROI, then I’ll build a cow clicker. :)
I don’t know for certain, but this is where my strengths lie, and this is where I have experience and connections. If the right opportunity presented itself, I would gladly start another company that promised to be as profitable.
However, this will not be the only company I start, and starting a company in the same field (i.e. games) will increase my chances of success. If I start a company in another field, I’d have to stick to that field to keep this kind of advantage.
It sounds that your goal is to make money to donate to efficient causes, like existential risk prevention. If that is so, I suspect that you aren’t being strategic about it, because it doesn’t seem like you explored enough other startup options aside from games.
What is the expected value of you exploring other options? I suspect that it’s greater than you working on games now, but that the returns diminish somewhat quickly. Here are some ideas that I thought of if you’re interested: https://medium.com/on-startups/6ecc143afe65.
I just read it, and I think my point still stands. To be more concrete, here’s what I would, and did, do: spend some time coming up with startup ideas (following Paul Graham’s advice), after some time, look through them all, come up with their expected values, and choose.
I think that there are a lot of ideas that Alexei has the technical skills to build, and the insightfulness to discover. And I think that a lot of these ideas are orders of magnitude more profitable than the game startup. At the very least, I think that the chances of these two above statements being true are high enough where it’s worth thinking hard about, instead of saying “I’m good at game development.… I’ll do game development.”
Wow, I’m surprised you commented on a post that’s so old. I’ve left the game industry completely since then and have now been at Google for 7 months. I agree with you that startups are great and very high EV (measured in $), quiet likely higher than any salaried job. However, for various reasons that I mentioned in my job search post that Unnnamed linked above, I chose to pursue immediate donation from salary. If you want to discuss this further, I’d be happy to PM you my email address.
Then shouldn’t you look for a co-founder who salivates at the idea of luring a massive population of weak-willed casual gamers into Skinner boxes that make them send a constant cash stream at your company, not people who like playing games and want to make games they themselves find compelling?
An ex-drug-dealer (now a video game industry powerbrain) once told me that he doesn’t understand why people buy heroin. The heroin peddler isn’t even doing heroin. Like him or not, when you hear Cliff Bleszinski talk about Gears of War, he sounds — in a good way — like a weed dealer. He sounds like he endorses what he is selling. When you’re in a room with social games guys, the “I never touch the stuff” attitude is so thick you’ll need a box cutter to breathe properly.
I would pay one hundred dollars a month for a game that “compulsion traps” me into doing what I’m supposed to be doing in the manner described in that article.
people who like playing games and want to make games they themselves find compelling?
Who said I was looking for those types of people?
*Edit: thanks for the link. I’ve seen and read that page multiple times, but I only now realized it’s actually a multi-page story. And it’s good. And Tim Rogers’ other writings are good. It’s certainly showing things in a new light. Very thought provoking...
My stance is: “If a slot machine game gives the most ROI, then I’ll make slot machine games.”
So, if a cow clicker gives the most ROI, then I’ll build a cow clicker. :)
Given how little money the average gamer spends, it seems to me that earning N dollars from FarmVille might even create more disutility overall (in the form of wasted time) than obtaining the same N dollars by robbing somebody. If that’s true, then LW readers who adopt your strategy but start with a different background (e.g. combat instead of game-making) should start robbing people and donating the proceeds to SingInst.
ETA: on further thought, disregard this comment, it’s wrong. If you completely ignore the cost to society, then saving the world by robbery still requires an opportunity to make lots of money from robbery. Otherwise getting a high-paying job seems more cost-effective, and starting a startup even better than that. I’m sorry. Continue doing what you’re doing :-)
So this is why Eliezer is always priming his readers with “rationality as martial arts”! :D
Beware the X-Rational Ninja—he will extrapolate your volition and steal your money! Then he will give you two boxes and you can choose to take one or two of them. If you choose one box, it contains all your stolen money and an authographed edition of HP:MoR; but if you choose two boxes, the first one is empty. (The second box always contains a yearly free subscription to a Rationalist Cow Clicker, where you can click on cows representing your cognitive biases.)
Is making games the right industry for you?
I don’t know for certain, but this is where my strengths lie, and this is where I have experience and connections. If the right opportunity presented itself, I would gladly start another company that promised to be as profitable.
However, this will not be the only company I start, and starting a company in the same field (i.e. games) will increase my chances of success. If I start a company in another field, I’d have to stick to that field to keep this kind of advantage.
It sounds that your goal is to make money to donate to efficient causes, like existential risk prevention. If that is so, I suspect that you aren’t being strategic about it, because it doesn’t seem like you explored enough other startup options aside from games.
What is the expected value of you exploring other options? I suspect that it’s greater than you working on games now, but that the returns diminish somewhat quickly. Here are some ideas that I thought of if you’re interested: https://medium.com/on-startups/6ecc143afe65.
Note that Alexei (the author of this post) later wrote this post.
I just read it, and I think my point still stands. To be more concrete, here’s what I would, and did, do: spend some time coming up with startup ideas (following Paul Graham’s advice), after some time, look through them all, come up with their expected values, and choose.
I think that there are a lot of ideas that Alexei has the technical skills to build, and the insightfulness to discover. And I think that a lot of these ideas are orders of magnitude more profitable than the game startup. At the very least, I think that the chances of these two above statements being true are high enough where it’s worth thinking hard about, instead of saying “I’m good at game development.… I’ll do game development.”
Hey adamzerner,
Wow, I’m surprised you commented on a post that’s so old. I’ve left the game industry completely since then and have now been at Google for 7 months. I agree with you that startups are great and very high EV (measured in $), quiet likely higher than any salaried job. However, for various reasons that I mentioned in my job search post that Unnnamed linked above, I chose to pursue immediate donation from salary. If you want to discuss this further, I’d be happy to PM you my email address.
Then shouldn’t you look for a co-founder who salivates at the idea of luring a massive population of weak-willed casual gamers into Skinner boxes that make them send a constant cash stream at your company, not people who like playing games and want to make games they themselves find compelling?
-- Tim Rogers, Who Killed Videogames
I would pay one hundred dollars a month for a game that “compulsion traps” me into doing what I’m supposed to be doing in the manner described in that article.
Who said I was looking for those types of people?
*Edit: thanks for the link. I’ve seen and read that page multiple times, but I only now realized it’s actually a multi-page story. And it’s good. And Tim Rogers’ other writings are good. It’s certainly showing things in a new light. Very thought provoking...
ha, my users demand that sorta features from me (achievements). You can crowdsource that kind of stuff if you have good filter.
Heh. As long as you know you’re being evil by doing it, I won’t mind. ;)
It’s for a good cause, so it’s okay, right?