Currently, it seems like NVIDIA is often able to manage to sell GPUs via Singaporean third-parties to China circumventing US trade restrictions.
It seems to me, that CIA and NSA should take up the task of analyzing when that happens and then relaying the information, so that the shipments can be stopped. While it’s always hard to know that CIA and NSA are up-to from the outside it seems like they currently fail at the job.
It might be valuable to push for the CIA and NSA investing more resources for that task. 1) It’s a way to push US AI policy in the right direction that’s not in conflict with Trump administration policy and thus has more change of being implemented. 2) It could create a power-center inside the CIA/NSA who’s self-interest it is to expand control of GPUs because they might get more resources if there’s more that needs controlling.
I have about 50% credence on: Nvidia has successfully lobbied the Trump administration to turn a blind eye toward illegal chip sales, such that the Trump administration wouldn’t stop the exports even at zero cost.
I think that position models the Trump administration as a single entity in a way that’s mistakes how complex political institutions work. Different people inside of the Trump administration have different agendas. It also suggests a level of competence at secret keeping that I don’t think the Trump administration has shown. I think there are some people who are serious China hawks inside the Trump administration.
Yes, this would be useful. This has previously been discussed some here (see the section “Increase the Intelligence Community’s Coordination with the BIS” in the PDF) and here, for example.
Does Trump’s policy currently prevent the sale of GPUs to China? I thought that Nvidia was able to sell GPUs to China with a 15% fee, but things may have changed.
The 15% fee thing would allow NVIDIA H20s, and maybe in the future B30As, to be sold to China, but while these are very useful chips, they are not the best chips. The H20 is especially good for inference but unless and until the B30A becomes available, there is no good legally exportable NVIDIA chip for training workloads. So there is still plenty of smuggling, as there was last year when the H20 was legally exportable without any fee.
Currently, it seems like NVIDIA is often able to manage to sell GPUs via Singaporean third-parties to China circumventing US trade restrictions.
It seems to me, that CIA and NSA should take up the task of analyzing when that happens and then relaying the information, so that the shipments can be stopped. While it’s always hard to know that CIA and NSA are up-to from the outside it seems like they currently fail at the job.
It might be valuable to push for the CIA and NSA investing more resources for that task.
1) It’s a way to push US AI policy in the right direction that’s not in conflict with Trump administration policy and thus has more change of being implemented.
2) It could create a power-center inside the CIA/NSA who’s self-interest it is to expand control of GPUs because they might get more resources if there’s more that needs controlling.
I have about 50% credence on: Nvidia has successfully lobbied the Trump administration to turn a blind eye toward illegal chip sales, such that the Trump administration wouldn’t stop the exports even at zero cost.
I think that position models the Trump administration as a single entity in a way that’s mistakes how complex political institutions work. Different people inside of the Trump administration have different agendas. It also suggests a level of competence at secret keeping that I don’t think the Trump administration has shown. I think there are some people who are serious China hawks inside the Trump administration.
The AI Action Plan has a section on this, it recommends that Commerce and IC coordinate on enforcement, including monitoring.
Yes, this would be useful. This has previously been discussed some here (see the section “Increase the Intelligence Community’s Coordination with the BIS” in the PDF) and here, for example.
Does Trump’s policy currently prevent the sale of GPUs to China? I thought that Nvidia was able to sell GPUs to China with a 15% fee, but things may have changed.
The 15% fee thing would allow NVIDIA H20s, and maybe in the future B30As, to be sold to China, but while these are very useful chips, they are not the best chips. The H20 is especially good for inference but unless and until the B30A becomes available, there is no good legally exportable NVIDIA chip for training workloads. So there is still plenty of smuggling, as there was last year when the H20 was legally exportable without any fee.