Plausibly, yeah, or at least many versions. Could you expand a bit more on what you mean / what you’re imagining / what would go wrong? My thought was that if it’s actual people leaving and then talking about that, it would be real + maybe impactful. E.g. think @Daniel Kokotajlo leaving OpenAI. (Don’t mean to imply Kokotajlo is an omnicider, just an example of loudly walking away from a frontier AI company.)
It just seems unlikely to be Bayesian evidence. Would you also feature those who left OpenAI and regretted it? If not, I expect that any competent “Omnicider” will see this as clearly as we do.
I’m not following (or I disagree). Even without that sort of feature, it would provide Bayesian evidence of lots of things (e.g. “this is feasible as opposed to not feasible” and “here’s some details about how this can work well in some cases”), as well as accomplishing other perfectly legitimate purposes of discourse (such as “making the possibility feel real” and communicating about social intentions such as social reward for leaving).
Plausibly, yeah, or at least many versions. Could you expand a bit more on what you mean / what you’re imagining / what would go wrong? My thought was that if it’s actual people leaving and then talking about that, it would be real + maybe impactful. E.g. think @Daniel Kokotajlo leaving OpenAI. (Don’t mean to imply Kokotajlo is an omnicider, just an example of loudly walking away from a frontier AI company.)
It just seems unlikely to be Bayesian evidence. Would you also feature those who left OpenAI and regretted it? If not, I expect that any competent “Omnicider” will see this as clearly as we do.
I’m not following (or I disagree). Even without that sort of feature, it would provide Bayesian evidence of lots of things (e.g. “this is feasible as opposed to not feasible” and “here’s some details about how this can work well in some cases”), as well as accomplishing other perfectly legitimate purposes of discourse (such as “making the possibility feel real” and communicating about social intentions such as social reward for leaving).