I think my personal beliefs would say “it’s not very useful” or something. I think the “ban AGI locally” plan is dependent on a pretty specific path to be useful and I don’t read the current phrasing as ruling out “One country Bans it and also does some other stuff in conjunction.” (actually, upon reflection I’m not that confident I know what sort of scenario you have in mind here)
I think that a slowdown that is in the neighborhood of “ban AI development temporarily near but not after max-controllable AI” could potentially be very impactful. Banning AI development for long enough to allow China to pull ahead is less clear. I’m not sure what the intention of the sentence was, but to me it seems to imply that any domestic action on its own would be of very little use.
The thing I saw the sentence as doing is mostly clarifying “We’re not naive, obviously just doing the naive thing here would not work, that’s why we’re not asking for it.” (I think I agree that a US ban would be some-kind-of-useful but it feels way less politically viable to me, since it feels more like throwing away the lead for no reason to most people. I realize it may sound weird to think “banning in one country less viable than banning worldwide”, but, I think the ban worldwide actually makes clearly makes sense in a way that banning l locally only maybe makes sense if you tune the parameters just right)
“ban AI development temporarily near but not after max-controllable AI”
I’m not sure I’m parsing the grammar here, wondering if you flipped the sign or I’m misreading. (it sounds like “AIs that are almost uncontrollable are banned, uncontrollably powerful AIs are allowed)
I think that a slowdown that is in the neighborhood of “ban AI development temporarily near but not after max-controllable AI” could potentially be very impactful. Banning AI development for long enough to allow China to pull ahead is less clear. I’m not sure what the intention of the sentence was, but to me it seems to imply that any domestic action on its own would be of very little use.
The thing I saw the sentence as doing is mostly clarifying “We’re not naive, obviously just doing the naive thing here would not work, that’s why we’re not asking for it.” (I think I agree that a US ban would be some-kind-of-useful but it feels way less politically viable to me, since it feels more like throwing away the lead for no reason to most people. I realize it may sound weird to think “banning in one country less viable than banning worldwide”, but, I think the ban worldwide actually makes clearly makes sense in a way that banning l locally only maybe makes sense if you tune the parameters just right)
I’m not sure I’m parsing the grammar here, wondering if you flipped the sign or I’m misreading. (it sounds like “AIs that are almost uncontrollable are banned, uncontrollably powerful AIs are allowed)