PSA: if you are in Russia, probably move out ASAP
The Metaculus crowd thinks that it’s very likely that Russia will restrict emigration:
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely that the aviation industry will collapse or shrink due to sanctions.
Related forecasts:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9918/martial-law-in-russia-before-april-2022/
- https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-martial-law-be-declared-in-rus
Mod note – I’m making an impromptu judgment call to frontpage this. I’m not sure about that and will talk it over with other moderators and maybe reverse the decision later.
(In general we don’t frontpage content that is newsy/non-timeless. We previously made the call to frontpage a fair amount of covid-content because it was just really useful to a lot of people to a degree that seemed to trump our usual concerns about non-timeless content. I’m worried about ending up in a world where we frontpage lots of Ukraine discussion to – it feels like a slippery slope towards just being a news-oriented site, which I want to push back against. But, this seems potentially time sensitive and important for our russian readers, of which we have a few)
I think temporarily front paging urgent, actionable information makes sense.
I agree that LW shouldn’t become a news site and that Ukraine discussion risks a slippery slope. I also had a phone call with a LW reader who was considering fleeting Russia. People are desperate for reliable information over there and LW is a good (in its own quirky way) source of information.
I propose the following guidelines: Frontpaging political news should be an emergency measure, to be taken only when the following three criteria are met
and no more than once per year (on average) unless the Singularity hits:You can take action as an individual. (It’s not a call to collective action.)
Action must be taken immediately. Failing to take action could ruin your life (or produce an equivalently positive outcome).
The information is under-reported and/or systematically suppressed by a powerful state actor.
Russia closing its borders easily satisfies all of the above criteria. Judging by recent history, events passing the above threshold happen no more than once every two years (on average).
Closing borders qualifies. A lethal disease escaping containment would qualify. The Holocaust would qualify.
Even if Russia’s borders remain open, I believe you [Raemon, moderator] made the right decision. The whole purpose of rationality is to make good decisions, especially in conditions of extreme uncertainty and great consequence. To win at no-limit poker you must play tight and aggressive. In this context, playing “tight” means avoiding frontpaging news >99% of the time. To maximize signal, we must also bet aggressively in that rare <1%.
I believe there is nothing wrong or irrational about taking collective action or calling to it. On the contrary, a culture that prohibited collective action has failed at instrumental rationality and is about to be conquered by a culture that didn’t. So I am strongly opposed to your first suggested rule.
Yes, I believe we shouldn’t get involved in politics if it endangers alignment research efforts or otherwise hurts the community for little gain. But we should take collective actions which carry negligible risks and huge expected benefits. Rationality is about winning. Being divided makes us weak and less likely to win. Let’s not do this.
Worth noting that we’ve massively overshot the “once per year” mark, with regards to frontpaging a lot of covid content. (I think this was plausibly bad, but not obviously so)
I like the general principles here, though still not sure about practicalities. I do very much like the “individual action is clearly useful” idea.
The “individual action is clearly useful” heuristic does two jobs. It disqualifies both non-actionable information and political campaigns.
Too far in either direction would be a mistake. “No news” implies “never post urgent actionable information”. “Allow news” runs into Lindy. It is a question of calibration. There is a window of reasonable calibrations. I think LW’s decisions fall into that window.
Sure, just noting that you just said “once a year”, and we did it like 50 times last year or something.
Duly noted. I did write “once a year”. I feel “once per week” is fine too.
Those… feel sufficiently different that I’m not sure what the point of even having a restriction would be.
I feel “once per day” (on average, over time) would be too permissive.
I have modified my original comment to remove the “once per year” restriction.
Yes, this seems correct. Unfortunately it already sounds difficult to get out:
‘My future is taken away from me’: Russians flee to escape consequences of Moscow’s war | Russia | The Guardian
“Those seeking to leave faced a severe lack of available flights after western countries closed their airspace to Russian airlines. Moscow has also closed its airspace to much of the west in response.
Flights to Yerevan, Istanbul and Belgrade were completely sold out for the coming days while a one-way ticket to Dubai was priced at over £3,000 ($4,006) – compared with £250 ($334) in ordinary times – according to the flight aggregator Skyscanner. Train tickets from St Petersburg to Helsinki were also sold out on Thursday and Friday.”
Also sounds from the article like border officials are extensively questioning folks at the border, scrolling through any private chats that haven’t been deleted on messaging apps, etc. Be careful all.
Note: I’ve heard borders might get closed within the next 24 hours. I have NOT sanity checked this, I’ve just seen it signal boosted by a few rationalists who are (likely) following the same algorithm as me of “man, doesn’t seem like there’s much time to fact check before signal boosting.”
More information here:
https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1499300550361460739?fbclid=IwAR06iAkAefBRZY7oVm76ZpqqCm84td7rK7GhXFeiX0M0J6V7hB5b78dJRpw
I too have heard a rumor (from my personal, separate source) that Russia might its borders too (albeit days ago and with on a longer projected timetable).
According to my contact in Saint-Petersburg this warning is kinda late. It has already happened. It’s not in the law yet but there are already major hurdles to leave the country and it’s not about sanctions—it’s from the Russian side.
Definitately scrub your phone before you leave. Not sure what’s best though—a full reset might look suspicious? My friend who managed to get out said the guard took their phone for almost an hour. They cleared web history and messages and weren’t stopped. $3000 ticket price though!
Uh, how does someone do the second thing?
Admins can hide the author of a post, if you ask them.
Is their karma still affected by voting on the post?
As far as I know, autocracies don’t tend to close borders because they don’t need people, unlike totalitarian regimes with an ideology. And in Russia in recent years, there have been periodic reports that the borders are about to be closed, probably encouraging the departure of people who do not support the actions of the authorities. But I will not insist on this, as I was mistaken in the forecast about the war, based on the same sources.
Putin might want to get rid of anyone who opposes him by letting them emigrate. Even worse, he could follow Castro’s playbook from the Mariel Boatlift of 1980, and send all his most dangerous and violent criminals to the West.
If you are leaving relatives or friends behind, consider developing some kind of code language, because people in Russia might be afraid to tell you their real opinions over the phone in plain speech.
How much would the drop in the value of the rouble and possibly the sanctions on financial systems effectively prevent emigration for many russians anyway?