An [automated coder] AC, if dropped into present day, would be as productive on its own as only human coders with no AIs. That is, you could remove all human coders from the AGI project and it would go as fast as if there were only human coders. The project can use 5% of their compute supply to run the AC.
What are people’s probabilities that the AC bar has already been reached?
And what is the right operationalization? “remove all human coders” is ambiguous. To make this precise, I have in mind removing all staff who are best described as individual contributors to the lab’s engineering.
Unless I am severely mistaken about @Daniel Kokotajlo’s ideas, the phrase means that the counterfactual project didn’t use AI assistants for coding at all.
Completely agree. I was sloppy and quoted the wrong thing. I’ve edited in to fix: meant to say ‘”remove all human coders” is ambiguous.’ rather than the old text.
From AI Futures
What are people’s probabilities that the AC bar has already been reached?
And what is the right operationalization? “remove all human coders” is ambiguous. To make this precise, I have in mind removing all staff who are best described as individual contributors to the lab’s engineering.
Unless I am severely mistaken about @Daniel Kokotajlo’s ideas, the phrase means that the counterfactual project didn’t use AI assistants for coding at all.
Completely agree. I was sloppy and quoted the wrong thing. I’ve edited in to fix: meant to say ‘”remove all human coders” is ambiguous.’ rather than the old text.