It’s not obvious that our utility for lives saved is linear, either. For example, I would confidently choose killing 50% of the world’s population over killing everyone with 50% probability, because in the former case humanity is likely to recover.
That said, it seems to be close enough to linear when the numbers are sufficiently small, and I’m ready to accept the conclusion that shutting up and multiplying is better than following my unexamined intuitions.
In this case I am much less certain of my answer, but I’m leaning toward 2.
On the other hand, in the $ question, I am quite certain that I would rather have $24000. This makes me quite confident that nonlinear utility of money is my true rejection, thankyouverymuch.
What if the problem were phrased like this?
Set Four:
1.) Save 24000 lives, with certainty
2.) 0.0001% chance of saving 27 billion lives, 99.9999% chance of saving no lives.
It’s not obvious that our utility for lives saved is linear, either. For example, I would confidently choose killing 50% of the world’s population over killing everyone with 50% probability, because in the former case humanity is likely to recover.
That said, it seems to be close enough to linear when the numbers are sufficiently small, and I’m ready to accept the conclusion that shutting up and multiplying is better than following my unexamined intuitions.
I’d need to know what the total human population is before making this decision...
For the purposes of this obscure hypothetical, let’s say the total human population is arbitrarily 40 billion.
You mean this?:
1.) 26986000 people die, with certainty.
2.) 0.0001% chance that nobody dies; 99.9999% chance that 27000000 people die.
And of course the answer is obvious. Given a population of 40 billion, you’d have to be a monster to not pick 2. :)
In this case I am much less certain of my answer, but I’m leaning toward 2.
On the other hand, in the $ question, I am quite certain that I would rather have $24000. This makes me quite confident that nonlinear utility of money is my true rejection, thankyouverymuch.