It’s not obvious that our utility for lives saved is linear, either. For example, I would confidently choose killing 50% of the world’s population over killing everyone with 50% probability, because in the former case humanity is likely to recover.
That said, it seems to be close enough to linear when the numbers are sufficiently small, and I’m ready to accept the conclusion that shutting up and multiplying is better than following my unexamined intuitions.
It’s not obvious that our utility for lives saved is linear, either. For example, I would confidently choose killing 50% of the world’s population over killing everyone with 50% probability, because in the former case humanity is likely to recover.
That said, it seems to be close enough to linear when the numbers are sufficiently small, and I’m ready to accept the conclusion that shutting up and multiplying is better than following my unexamined intuitions.