I picked it because it has the most predictions and is frequently pointed to as an indicator of big shifts. But you’re right, I should work on adding an option to use the strong question instead; I can see why people might prefer that.
The Weak AGI question on metaculus could be solved tomorrow and very little would change about your life, certainly not worth “reflecting on being human” etc.
Not exactly. Don’t get me wrong, this clock is bad, which is why I downvoted it strongly, but it does matter if they solve it tomorrow or the next decade. It would give them quite a few capabilities that they lack right now, though I still agree with you that this clock is bad.
Eliezer seems to think that the shift from proto agi to agi to asi will happen really fast and many of us on this site agree with him
thus its not sensible that there is a decade gap between “almost ai” and ai on metaculus . If I recall Turing (I think?) said something similar. That once we know the the way to generate even some intelligence things get very fast after that (heavily paraphrased).
So 2028 really is the beginning of the end if we do really see proto agi then.
Why did you use the weak AGI question? Feels like a motte-and-Bailey to say “x time until AGI” but then link to the weak AGI question.
I picked it because it has the most predictions and is frequently pointed to as an indicator of big shifts. But you’re right, I should work on adding an option to use the strong question instead; I can see why people might prefer that.
I added the ability to switch to the strong question! You can do it here.
Agreed.
The Weak AGI question on metaculus could be solved tomorrow and very little would change about your life, certainly not worth “reflecting on being human” etc.
Not exactly. Don’t get me wrong, this clock is bad, which is why I downvoted it strongly, but it does matter if they solve it tomorrow or the next decade. It would give them quite a few capabilities that they lack right now, though I still agree with you that this clock is bad.
Eliezer seems to think that the shift from proto agi to agi to asi will happen really fast and many of us on this site agree with him
thus its not sensible that there is a decade gap between “almost ai” and ai on metaculus . If I recall Turing (I think?) said something similar. That once we know the the way to generate even some intelligence things get very fast after that (heavily paraphrased).
So 2028 really is the beginning of the end if we do really see proto agi then.