That would likely help with “I’m not feeling secure enough to be properly open to criticism.” I predict that the more general interaction you have + Alexei’s points, the more likely it is that you’ll both feel secure.
There may also be external factors that are harder to overcome like power imbalances (imagine a janitor employed by an janitorial company trying to criticize the CEO in the office building who leaves litter everywhere).
I agree that focusing on urban areas makes sense. By definition, an area with high population is attractive to lots of people.
Has there been any work done to quantify the effect as part of an overall cost calculation?
For example, let’s say that certain object X is sold as a subscription (buy us for 1 week, pay A, buy it for 1 month, pay B, and buy it for a year and pay C where A per day>B per day>C per day). There is obviously a certain amount of inconvenience each time I have to go through the order page.
If having access to X is necessary 2 days per month, it’s easy to calculate the best option (probably A) per year:
A/2 days * 12 months in a year
B/2 days * 12 months in a year
C /(2 days * 12 months)
Would adding the inconvenience cost be something like:
(A/2 days + transaction cost) * 12 months in a year+ cost of not having it on the days you want it because it’s too troublesome and you’re too tired * p(being too tired and exhausted) * 12
If anyone wants to dig further into commercial contracts, there’s the “Uniform Commercial Code” which is like a big software library that most people have basically agreed to implement in the same way across different programming languages.
Update that being really smart with nearly instant access to the right answer is not going to save people from making basic cognitive mistakes.
I have an extremely common health condition. There are well established treatment guidelines freely available and those guidelines have been quite consistent for several years. They say that if life gets worse, try X. Then try Y if that doesn’t help enough.
When I told my doctor that things weren’t good and outright said I knew that such information existed (as a gentle reminder), she suggested doing Z. Z had not been recommended for many years.
When Z failed, she wanted to try Y but I explicitly asked about X. She agreed it was a good idea and suggested an X-like solution.
The pharmacy got an electronic prescription for A, which is not like X at all and is administered differently than all X-like things.
Thankfully, the mistake was caught at that point by the pharmacy and I got X.
Probable mistakes :
not using a checklist or any clinical reference material
overly trusting one’s memory
Ignoring contradictory facts from the medical records /drug prescribing software
lack of a quick feedback loop for medication questions from a pharmacy (the pharmacy first reported a problem existed over 5 days before I notified the doctor)
If anyone wants a picture of the sewer stuff, UCSD has a nice slide deck with a photo: https://returntolearn.ucsd.edu/_images/return-to-campus/fall-2020-plan/return-to-learn-fall-plan.pdf. They seem to have a similar plan.
https://wildfire.cr.usgs.gov/firehistory/viewer/viewer.htm may help for historical information.
You could try asking a local bakery if they would be willing to sell to you. They might be willing to tell you who their supplier is too.
Just be sure to go to the location with the active ovens (if there are multiple locations) or call ahead.
That site is dead.
Can you cite a more reliable source?
I noticed that you don’t talk too much about getting your life in order to the point where you can apply the things you describe here.
If you had the chance to meet your past self when it was still very fatigued, what resources would you jot down/leave behind so your tired-self would be able to quickly get itself fixed up? For instance, if your past self already knew that it should do a bunch of data logging/analysis, how would you help that version of yourself get the time to do it?
This is a question about prioritization and to do lists. I find that my affairs can be sorted into:
urgent and important (do this or else you will lose your job; the doctor says to do X or you will die a horrible death in Y days)
This stuff really needs to get done soon but the world won’t end (paying bills/dealing with bugs in one’s life/fixing chronic health issues)
Due to some of the things in the 2nd category, I have very little time to spend on the latter 2 categories. Therefore, I find that when I have a moment to sit down and try to plan the remaining minutes/hours of the day, I keep thinking of stuff I’ve forgotten. For instance, at T-0, I will say “I should do A, B, and C”. At T+5, I will remember D and say “I should do D, A, and B; there is no time for C today”. And on it goes until spending time on A or B seems profoundly foolish and doomed.
In HPMOR, the problem is also presented at the end of the book.
Has anyone written about dealing with this problem?
Haven’t quite reached the 100% resolved/full-payoff state yet but I once had a doctor firmly tell a family member to (paraphrased) not settle for a partial improvement and https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fhEPnveFhb9tmd7Pe/use-the-try-harder-luke. I notice that when I apply that seriously to my health problems, entire swaths of the problem space vanish. I can’t say that I’m 100% fixed though because my doctors and I are still digging around in the much-reduced problem space.
If you require something that’s fully resolved or has definite results, then I’d say:
Aforementioned “1 thing” resulted in long-term pain relief in part of my body
Checking UpToDate (<$50 for 1 week) before (and during) doctor visits dropped my stress greatly and showed me that certain problems might have a real solution. I am also able to have a much more intelligent and meaningful conversation with doctors
What would you expect to happen if those experts started participating in Metaculus?
Are there any other organizations that should get a reputation boost from this event? I’m thinking about organizations like HEB supermarket and USPS.
A few theoretical data sources that are pretty geographically specific:
Hospital patient care records
Patient records from 911 calls
911 detailed questions and answers
In the United States, some more concrete thoughts :
911 calls can be aggregated by asking my day job to integrate with your database.
Detailed Q and A in 911 can be aggregated by the Q and A software vendor’s partners (hi!) or themselves.
Patient data from 911 is aggregated sporadically at the state level (NEMSIS) and my employer
Hospital data is aggregated by ESSENCE (CDC and state level) with an unknown delay
There are also other sporadic aggregators of hospital data.
If this is too much advertising, you can edit or reject this comment.
To summarize, your question is somewhat technically feasible. It’s just a lot of work.
Couldn’t you just pick a game that was most similar to the unsolved problems in AI? For example, you could say that the AI box experiment is a game.
Model: Prevalence in Bay Area & Other Places prompts for me to ask permission to view the document.
I noticed that even though I may not be as optimized in the matter of investments as others (hi, Wei Dai!), the basic rationality principles still help a lot. This morning, when I went to invest my usual chunk of my paycheck, I reflected on my actions and realized that the following principles were helping me (and had helped me in the past) buy stuff that were likely undervalued:
pre-commitment (to a certain fund allocation)
think about it for more than 5 min (to putting in the up front leg work and reading to determine my investing approach)
use the try harder, Luke (repetitively following the investment plan week after week even in bad times; overcoming changes in brokerages and entire financial firms going away)
It’s nice to have dramatic examples of “rationalists should win” from other people. But for me, nothing beats personal experience with even small examples of “winning”.
This week, I noticed that a medical textbook (Principles and Practice of Sleep Medicine) explicitly described Bayes Theorem in the first pages of a chapter about diagnostic tests. It went on to describe how strongly you should update your beliefs based on various symptoms/tests (e.g. “Presence of daytime headache” means you should update __this hard__ towards having a sleep problem but if you don’t have a headache, you should update __different amount__ in the other direction).
I thought it was neat that this type of thinking is being used in medicine’s textbook orthodoxy.