links 3/10/26: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/03-10-2026
https://manufacturing-operations.vercel.app/index.html Ben Reinhardt’s matrix of manufacturing operations, ranked by how valuable closed-loop self-improving automation would be
bottlenecks in defense production:
https://www.businessdefense.gov/ibr/mceip/dpai/dpat3/ DPA Article III is a department involved in procuring supplies from the private sector
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-18-45.pdf solid rocket motors, used in missiles, are in shortage; carbon fiber motor casings are one of the bottlenecks
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan wargames of an invasion of Taiwan
https://www.insensitivemunitions.org/history/the-introduction-of-castable-plastic-bonded-explosives-pbxs-in-navy-munitions/ plastic bonded explosives are also a key bottleneck
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tennessee_manufacturing_plant_explosion explosives manufacturing is quite dangerous
https://www.navalsteminterns.us/nreip/labs/nswc_indianhead.html missile warheads are made and tested at a single naval facility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holston_Army_Ammunition_Plant this is the only place where the explosive material for missiles is made
https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave/chapters/chapter-6-assessing-the-us-indo-pacific-munitions-system we are short of missiles by about an order of magnitude, Heritage estimates
https://www.defensenews.com/space/2017/06/21/us-industrial-base-at-risk-for-key-rocket-motor-ingredient/ there is only one supplier of a key ingredient for rocket oxidizer, ammonium perchlorate
https://nuclearcompanion.com/data/mark-48-torpedo/ parts of a torpedo
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/lrasm.htm the LRASM, a key missile
https://news.usni.org/2026/01/24/2026-u-s-national-defense-strategy the US’s official current strategy in the Pacific: “denial defense along the Pacific Island Chain”, i.e. preventing an invasion of Taiwan by being ready to sink any Chinese fleet attempting to attack
https://dynomight.net/pattern/ Dynomight, food for thought
https://catboost.ai/docs/en/ library for gradient boosting
https://paulgraham.com/brandage.html Paul Graham on watches as an extended metaphor for what happens when technical competence is commoditized. he never mentions AI but it’s interesting to consider what the analogies would be.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/anthropic-officially-arbitrarily Zvi Mowshowitz, like all reasonable people, decries what’s going on here
https://timhwang.github.io/because-china/ China is an excellent excuse for whatever you wanted to do anyway
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillation#History the Babylonians had distillation, but for perfume, not booze
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gunpowder it is entirely a myth that the Chinese used gunpowder only for fireworks and were unaware of its military applications. they used gunpowder weapons for centuries before Europeans did.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_variates method used in Monte Carlo estimation
links 3/31/26: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/sarahbrain/page/03-31-2026
https://writing.antonleicht.me/p/press-play-to-continue a cogent explanation of “why not Pause AI, given that you are concerned about AI risk?” pretty convincing to me.
tl;dr: you don’t want to support bad policies that don’t affect x-risk and/or are unlikely to pass
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/delve-into-compliance-theatre/ Patrick McKenzie on Delve. he believes they’re probably helping startups fake compliance paperwork. this is illegal and will get a lot of people in trouble.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_against_perpetuities you cannot exert control over private property for more than 20 years after the owner’s death.
https://summerlightning.substack.com/p/the-two-memories AI and embodied vs. contemplative memories. ofc i’m mostly on the contemplative side.
https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/ a case that this war is a bad idea
https://www.programmablemutter.com/p/gooning-towards-the-fuhrer-as-policy rather satisfying (too satisfying?) theory of how the Trump administration operates
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/finish-the-industrial-revolution Robin Hanson on his usual obsession. i have to ask myself, what would I be willing to sacrifice about modern liberal democratic culture in order to make it out-reproduce the Amish or Haredi in the long run… that wouldn’t make it worse, by my values, than the Amish or the Haredi? like, if you buy the argument that in the long run the future is dominated by Malthusian cultures that sacrifice personal freedom and per capita consumption to reproduce more, and you want to turn your own culture into a Malthusian one, maybe the result is not going to be a nicer culture to live in than other Malthusian cultures. Maybe the problem is precisely the Malthusianism and, if i have to pick my flavor, i might pick Jewish Malthusianism as the least-worst option.