https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.16490 “Formalising the intentional stance 1: attributing goals and beliefs to stochastic processes”, a Bayes-inspired test for when you can model a process as “making belief updates” and acting accordingly, Nathaniel Virgo
https://causalincentives.com/ Causal Incentives Working Group, led by Tom Everitt at Google DeepMind, a causal (Pearl-style) framework for figuring out how agent-like AIs are
https://timrudner.github.io/semantic-isotropy/ Tim Rudner: if an AI’s answers to the same prompt are distributed isotropically in some embedding space, i.e. not clustering around one correct answer, they are more likely to be hallucinated/non-factual.
links 8/6/26: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/08-06-2026
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/googles-chief-scientist-is-leaving-after-27-yearsto-start-his-own-ai-company-6abad73d Jeff Dean is leaving Google to start an AI company
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.05184 research agenda on renormalization for AI interpretability
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00984 “Symmetries at the origin of hierarchical emergence”, a formal concept of emergence
https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.16490 “Formalising the intentional stance 1: attributing goals and beliefs to stochastic processes”, a Bayes-inspired test for when you can model a process as “making belief updates” and acting accordingly, Nathaniel Virgo
https://causalincentives.com/ Causal Incentives Working Group, led by Tom Everitt at Google DeepMind, a causal (Pearl-style) framework for figuring out how agent-like AIs are
https://www.tomeveritt.se/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique you can’t just assume economic behavior, like the consumption function, will stay fixed when the policy regime changes and is known to change.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1911990?googleloggedin=true&seq=4 statistical tests for exogeneity, aka behavior patterns that do not depend on various environmental variables
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_statics#Stability how does some economic outcome change before and after a change in some exogenous parameter?
https://timrudner.github.io/semantic-isotropy/ Tim Rudner: if an AI’s answers to the same prompt are distributed isotropically in some embedding space, i.e. not clustering around one correct answer, they are more likely to be hallucinated/non-factual.