People consistently underestimate just how lost they will be when the solution is no longer right in front of them.
Important and true. In many cases where I felt confused about how people (myself absolutely included) behave highly irrationally, my conclusion was that many of us are desperately grasping for certainty much of the time and on most topics.
Noticing confusion only feels like an option where one’s thinking feels mostly stable. Reality has a surprising amount of detail, we live in a world full of agents that are just as smart as ourselves and which is full of evolved structures that slot right into our innermost workings and empower/exploit them. We can use Local Validity as a Key to Sanity and Civilization, but any single person can only do so much and it is permanently tempting to cut corners on the whole solidified-world-model thing and just optimize for what we want directly: “I see the solution and it makes lots of sense. If someone asked me about it, I could even explain why it works. Success!”. Why waste lots of time and effort on digging deeper when successful – much better to move forward and win the next game.
Structurally, we do the same thing all the time and often it is a good idea. But we definitely systematically underestimate just how pervasive this tension is, and often we shy away from noticing. Security Mindset has impressive examples.
Our world is moving more and more out-of-distribution for our evolved heuristics and we should expect our own natural tendencies to fail us increasingly often.
Over time, I have progressed to feeling deep sadness for a group that surrenders much of what it claims to value. The thing I want to impress with this article is the consistency with which we as a species underestimate our own willingness to give up our culture, economy and autonomy to AI, even without monetary incentives.
Thanks for sharing these experiences from the Go community – if you are aware of a sub-group which attempts to (and maybe succeeds) at Protecting Cognitive Integrity under AI use, I would be happy to learn about them, too.
Interesting, your small/big-world point reminds me of the mean-field footnote in OP that I felt confused by:
Here, assuming that I have no effect on the environment is not quite what mean field theory does (at least not in the places where I encountered it in physics): mean field theory assumes “everyone behaves like me. If I follow a principle, the world does too.” From that assumption, a natural next step is Kant’s ‘Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.’. This does seem related to “the best move is non-consequentialist”.
If I had zero effect on the big world (also in the sense that the big world does not treat me any differently if I misbehave) there would be no force that pushes me to cooperate. But with the mean-field worldview, I will assume that there is an effect even if I am not tracking the causality – whether there are repeated interactions or not.