Better forecasting infrastructure will help the Dems allocate resources in the 2028 election. In fact, it likely helped the Dems keep the House close in 2024, which has provided an important check on Republican power over the last year or two. Betting markets have outperformed polling aggregators like 538 or the NYT since they took off in popularity and will continue to do so. This will help Democrats allocate funding to tipping point congressional races and is probably worth millions of dollars alone, if not far more (see recent EA focus on democracy).
This seems to imply that better forecasting infrastructure helps Democrats more than Republicans? Why would we expect that to be the case? To me, it seems like prediction markets are more popular on the right so I would expect Republicans to benefit more from forecasting infrastructure.
I don’t think it would be wise or feasible for middle powers to try to ‘win’ the AI race, nor do I think this is a threat in any meaningful way.
The only ‘winning’ here that is feasible for middle powers is that both safety is ensured and benefits of AGI are shared fairly. Those are important goals in their own rights and seem like things we should aim for.