sanyer

• sanyer 12 May 2026 21:29 UTC

  2 points

  1

  in reply to: deep’s comment on: jacquesthibs’s Shortform

  and also to plausibly win, which seems less good to aim for here

  I don’t think it would be wise or feasible for middle powers to try to ‘win’ the AI race, nor do I think this is a threat in any meaningful way.

  The only ‘winning’ here that is feasible for middle powers is that both safety is ensured and benefits of AGI are shared fairly. Those are important goals in their own rights and seem like things we should aim for.

• sanyer 3 May 2026 8:44 UTC

  2 points

  0

  on: Fore­cast­ing is Not Over­rated and It’s Prob­a­bly Funded Appropriately

  Better forecasting infrastructure will help the Dems allocate resources in the 2028 election. In fact, it likely helped the Dems keep the House close in 2024, which has provided an important check on Republican power over the last year or two. Betting markets have outperformed polling aggregators like 538 or the NYT since they took off in popularity and will continue to do so. This will help Democrats allocate funding to tipping point congressional races and is probably worth millions of dollars alone, if not far more (see recent EA focus on democracy).

  This seems to imply that better forecasting infrastructure helps Democrats more than Republicans? Why would we expect that to be the case? To me, it seems like prediction markets are more popular on the right so I would expect Republicans to benefit more from forecasting infrastructure.

• sanyer 27 Apr 2026 9:47 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: XelaP’s comment on: Fore­cast­ing is Way Over­rated, and We Should Stop Fund­ing It

  Prediction markets, or at least judgemental forecasting, has been used in companies before though? At least Google had a pretty substantive internal forecasting platform at some point.

• sanyer 21 Mar 2026 14:59 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Mateusz Bagiński’s comment on: Ma­teusz Bag­iński’s Shortform

  Is there something specifically about EA groups that make them more favorable to an AI pause compared to national AI safety groups? AI safety groups seem like potentially more credible actors regarding this (and indeed, at least CeSIA in France has already done stuff regarding this)

• sanyer 21 Mar 2026 14:49 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Chris_Leong’s comment on: pe­ter­bar­nett’s Shortform

  What is the ideology in middle powers you fear of? What are the harmful actions that middle powers might do if they get AGI-pilled?
  
  (Maybe you might be worried that these countries attempt building their own AGI, but it seems extremely unlikely these countries would be able to race ahead the US or China. The worst that could come from that is slightly worse arms race and lots of middle power money wasted)

• sanyer 10 Mar 2026 16:06 UTC

  4 points

  2

  on: The case for AI safety ca­pac­ity-build­ing work

  I guess one consideration for prioritizing direct work over capacity-building is AI timelines. Do you think this should be an important consideration?

[Question] When has fore­cast­ing been use­ful for you?

• sanyer 10 Feb 2026 5:07 UTC

  9 points

  0

  in reply to: Chris Lakin’s comment on: Near-In­stantly Abort­ing the Worst Pain Imag­in­able with Psychedelics

  Is there any particular reason to expect they would be memetic viruses?

• sanyer 6 Jan 2026 21:15 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Rafael Harth’s comment on: A guide to Iter­ated Am­plifi­ca­tion & Debate

  They show up to me now as well. Not sure what happened yesterday, weird

• sanyer 5 Jan 2026 17:28 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Rafael Harth’s comment on: A guide to Iter­ated Am­plifi­ca­tion & Debate

  Not sure what happened in between, but some diagrams are missing again

• sanyer 24 Nov 2025 18:41 UTC

  6 points

  6

  on: Stop Ap­ply­ing And Get To Work

  The soundness of this advice depends a bit on what career path you want to pursue, though. If you want to do some lobbying or policy advocacy, it’s pretty difficult to “just get to work” if you don’t have the right network, skill set, and credentials. And working in that area without knowing what you’re doing can also be quite harmful.

• sanyer 24 Nov 2025 18:39 UTC

  5 points

  2

  on: Stop Ap­ply­ing And Get To Work

  It’s worth saying that applying for things can also yield some benefits. I definitely became a better writer through the various work tests I did when I was applying to lots of training programs. I also got some nice feedback (props to CLR especially!) and the experience helped me to better understand what different orgs & people are working on. I also got a clearer idea of my career aspirations.

  This is assuming you get through the very first round and get to do some test tasks though...

• sanyer 19 Nov 2025 18:12 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Mateusz Bagiński’s comment on: Jemist’s Shortform

  Well yes, but I’m not sure if non-native speakers are in the “intended public”, since they operate in the US mostly

• sanyer 19 Nov 2025 16:39 UTC

  5 points

  2

  in reply to: J Bostock’s comment on: Jemist’s Shortform

  As a non-native English speaker, OpenPhil was sooo much easier to pronounce than Coefficient Giving. I’m sure this shouldn’t play a big part in the naming decision, but still...

• sanyer 7 Nov 2025 16:36 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: Leg­ible vs. Illeg­ible AI Safety Problems

  What are some examples of illegible AI safety problems?

• sanyer 5 Oct 2025 13:03 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: What train­ing data should de­vel­op­ers filter to re­duce risk from mis­al­igned AI? An ini­tial nar­row proposal

  Regarding results of empirical evaluations of AI’s scheming-relevant capabilities, I think we could do even better than simple removal by replacing the real results with synthetic results that intentionally mislead the AIs about their own capabilities. So, if the model is good at scheming, we could mislead it by making it believe it is bad at it, and vice-versa. I think this could be quite feasible, since rather than coming up with fully synthetic data that may be easy to spot as synthetic, you only need to replace some specific results.

• sanyer 30 Jul 2025 7:20 UTC

  8 points

  1

  on: China pro­poses new global AI co­op­er­a­tion organisation

  A link to the original article would be appreciated

• sanyer 26 Jun 2025 5:50 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Vladimir_Nesov’s comment on: Con­sider chilling out in 2028

  How many people are working on test-time learning? How feasible do you think it is?

• sanyer 16 Jun 2025 15:47 UTC

  3 points

  2

  in reply to: jenn’s comment on: jenn’s Shortform

  I see. Why do you have this impression that the default algorithms would do this? Genuinely asking, since I haven’t seen convincing evidence of this.

• sanyer 16 Jun 2025 13:06 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: jenn’s comment on: jenn’s Shortform

  I don’t know, the obviously wrong things you see on the internet seems to differ a lot based on your recommendation algorithm. The strawmanny sjw takes you list are mostly absent from my algorithm. In contrast, I see LOTS of absurd right-wing takes in my feed.