Prediction markets, or at least judgemental forecasting, has been used in companies before though? At least Google had a pretty substantive internal forecasting platform at some point.
And they tended to be quite successful, yet not get used or get shutdown, which Hanson attributes to cognitive biases and upsetting social hierarchies. But it’s possible for such things to get adopted—e.g. hospitals do hand washing now, and even checklists have spread. Thus the idea is to get some more high profile showcase of its usefulness, and for decisions that are worth much more.
Prediction markets, or at least judgemental forecasting, has been used in companies before though? At least Google had a pretty substantive internal forecasting platform at some point.
And they tended to be quite successful, yet not get used or get shutdown, which Hanson attributes to cognitive biases and upsetting social hierarchies. But it’s possible for such things to get adopted—e.g. hospitals do hand washing now, and even checklists have spread. Thus the idea is to get some more high profile showcase of its usefulness, and for decisions that are worth much more.