Data scientist at Epoch
Robi Rahman
Karma: 51
Correction: AlphaStar used 6*10^22 FLOP, not 2*10^23. You have mixed up TPU chips and TPU boards.
What does McDonald’s sell in France?
Ingenuous was my first thought too, but it doesn’t have the meaning I think you intended. Perhaps disingenuous?
But if your theory is found to be against the Second Law of Thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it to collapse in deepest humiliation. ― Arthur Eddington
I think you meant “there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation”.
It is completely ingenious to mention only Frank for that claim
Ingenious? You mean misleading?
One year later, in light of the ChatGPT internet and shell plugins, do you still think this is just a theoretical thing? Should we worry about it yet?
The fire alarm sentiment seems to have been entirely warranted, even if the plan proposed in the post wouldn’t have been helpful.
Why is the application deadline this month if the retreat is happening next summer?
I’ll be bringing Wits & Wagers, Just One, Secret Hitler, and Innovation.
Lumifer was using the word “expected” correctly.
It’s awful that you were downvoted in this thread when you were mostly right and the others were mostly wrong. I’m updating my estimate of LW’s average intelligence downward.
No it doesn’t! A coin biased towards heads can have p(H) = 0.6, p(T) = 0.4, and each flip can be an independent trial. The total results from many flips will then be Poisson distributed.
They’re Saturdays at 19:00, but not necessarily the 2nd weekend of the month. We kind of just poll the attendees at the end of each meetup and find out when people are available next month.
The meetups are ongoing! We’ve had meetups for the past 50+ consecutive months with no interruptions, although we had to be outdoors and sparsely distanced during quarantine.
It’s another subsidy to agribusiness conglomerates, which leech huge sums of money from taxpayers already.
And it uses up the corn so it can’t be sold to hungry poor people, which is bad because starvation is bad.
I’ll be there! What games should I bring?
I’ll probably be there today! What games should I bring?
Edit: Couldn’t make it this week, sorry :(
When will the survey results be published?
Someone said elsewhere in this thread that if you stop in the middle of the survey, it does record the answers you put in before quitting.
This summarizes a common strain of thought in economics, the idea of “revealed preferences”. People tend to say they like a lot of things, like family or the environment or a friendly workplace. Many of the same people who say these things then go and ignore their families, pollute, and take high-paying but stressful jobs. The traditional economic explanation is that the people’s actions reveal their true preferences, and that all the talk about caring about family and the environment is just stuff people say to look good and gain status.
I think you are mischaracterizing the concept of revealed preference. It’s not that they claim to care about family or the environment “just for status”, but rather, they exaggerate how much they care about one thing relative to another. For example, when I was overweight, I used to say stuff like “I want to be skinny”. But I’d keep eating junk food anyway. The reality was that I wanted to eat junk food more than I wanted to be healthy. (Maybe not long-term: hyperbolic discounting can explain this, since people over-weight rewards that come sooner, so even people who will pick an apple instead of a cookie for tomorrow’s lunch might be tempted enough to eat the cookie when the choice is right in front of them.) Nowadays, I enjoy being healthy more than I enjoy the taste of ice cream, so I can convince myself to stop eating it if I think about the downsides.
I think the “Successful Treaty” and “Terrorists” scenarios are impossible as written.
There’s too much economic incentive to create AGI. With algorithmic and hardware progress, eventually it will become possible to make an AGI with slightly more computing hardware than a gaming laptop, and then it’ll be impossible to stop everyone from doing it.