Disagree. Our target audience—humans—rarely if ever thinks of ‘correlation’ in terms of its mathematical definition and I suspect would be put off by an attempt to do so.
RichardHughes
I don’t see a point or thesis in your statement for me to react to beyond the situation itself. What are you getting at? What argument are you seeking to make?
It strikes me that performing this experiment on people, then revealing what has occurred, may be a potentially useful method of enlightening people to the flaws of their cognition. How might we design a ‘kit’ to reproduce this sleight of hand in the field, so as to confront people with it usefully?
Are you sure that you really want to have done Y? Maybe you just think you do.
I’m not competent to comment on the ‘revealed incompetence of the Bitcoin community’, but for the benefit of those who aren’t aware of those issues, it would useful if you could either summarize that revelation or post a link to such a summary.
Decision paralysis is a cruel binding that falls only on the unfettered.
Presuming I value the lives of all the people involved equally, I turn on to the side track. If I have a strong reason not to let the person on the side track die—they’re a relative, I know them well, they owe me money, I’m in love with them, whatever—I let it go straight.
This is a really easy problem if you accept that you’re only a marginally good person at best.
I was literally just about to post a thread asking about the fixation on putting numerical values on our confidences all the time, then I saw this. So, thanks for that. Wrapped that little dilemma right up.
“Not all data is productively quantifiable to arbitrary precision.” Hoard that, and grow wiser for it.
Don’t forget the threat of high-atmospheric detonations creating electromagnetic pulses big enough to destroy every un-shielded microchip in Europe, a.k.a., every microchip in Europe. Even a rogue state can manage that.
I voted ‘other’ and downvoted the question. Lordy, what the heck are you doin’ bringing this in here? D:
Can you provide more info about the event?
Can you find that article about cupholder man-years?
1: Obviously I would PREFER 1.0, but if it appears likely that it will never happen, I’d be okay with 0.900. I won’t be a clever motherfucker anymore, but I’ll still be a motherfucker. As long as I have the capacity to love and be loved, I’ll find a way to be happy. It might not be the way I use now, but I have confidence I’ll find one.
2: Anyone who has themselves frozen without considering this angle is being very silly; ideally we just look in their will. If they didn’t specify conditions for their revivification, we should revive them whenever the value seems morally justifiable to the unfreezer due to improving conditions or just economic necessity.
3: I’ll volunteer to be the trial for 0.500 function. Sure, it’ll suck, and I’ll probably die again in the near future, confused and unhappy, but whatever, yo. Science ain’t easy. Plus right now I’m resigned to my eventual death regardless, so what the fuck ever.
The specific fake argument used is flawed because of that. When people make the correlation-causation error, how often are they doing it based off of a variable that’s constant across the population? Do people ever really develop ‘drinking water causes x’ beliefs?
It’s a valid point and very true, but I suspect that it isn’t applicable to the issue at hand.
Why is it important to quantify that value?
I live my life under the assumption that it is correct, and I do not make allowances in my strategic thinking that it may be false. As for how hard it would be to convince me I was wrong, I am currently sufficiently invested in the atomic theory of matter that I can’t think, off-hand, what such evidence would look like. But I presume (hope) that a well-stated falsifiable experiment which showed matter as a continuum would convince me to become curious.
It is admittedly not an existential risk for our species, but it is an existential risk for our civilization.
How are the worst-case-scenario recovery tools? I.E., if you’re injured, do you risk bankruptcy from medical care? How’s the crime risk? Long term health risks?
I fear bees way less than I fear super-torment. Let’s go with the bees.