One example is the kind of person who began to learn something, worked at it, and became good at it compared to their friends. Without context for what “good” really means in the outside world, it is easy to believe that you are good.
In my blog I gave the example of myself as a teenager in chess. I could usually beat everyone in my school except my brother, so I felt like a good player.
But my competitive rating would have probably been about 1200-1400. I still remember my first encounter with a good chess player. A master was sitting in public, playing simultaneously against everyone who wanted to play him. I sat down, promptly lost, played again and lost again. He gave me some advice beginning with, “Weak players like you should focus on...”
I took offense, despite having just received evidence that he knew what he was talking about when it came to chess.
While I learned better, I’ve now been on the other side of this interaction in a number of areas. Including ping-pong and programming. Which suggests that my younger self was hardly unique in my overestimation of my abilities.
I agree that when you feel sure of your reasoning, you are generally more likely right than when you aren’t sure.
But when you cross into feeling certain, you should suspect cognitive bias. And when you encounter other people who are certain, you should question whether they might also have cognitive bias. Particularly when they are certain on topics that other smart and educated people disagree with them on.
This is not a 100% rule. But I’ve found it a useful guideline.