The problem with this policy is the unilateralist’s curse which says that a single optimistic actor could develop a technology. Technologies such as AI have substantial benefits and risks, the balance is uncertain and the net benefit is perceived differently by different actors. For a technology not to be developed all actors would have to agree not to develop it which would require significant coordination.
Yes, agreed, what you refer to is indeed a huge obstacle.
From years of writing on this I’ve discovered another obstacle. When ever this subject comes up almost all those who join the conversation focus almost exclusively on obstacles and theories regarding why such change isn’t possible, and...
The conversation almost never gets to the point of folks rolling up their sleeves to look for solutions.
I don’t have a big pile of solutions to put on the table either. All I really have is the insight that overcoming these challenges isn’t optional.
In my judgement there is little chance of such fundamental change to our relationship with unlimited technological progress within the current cultural status quo. However, given the vast scale of forces being released in to the world there would seem to be an unprecedented possibility of revolutionary change to the status quo.
As example, imagine even a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. More people would die in a few minutes than died in all of WWII. The media would feed on the carnage for a long time, relentlessly pumping unspeakable horror imagery in to every home in the world with a TV.
Consider for instance how all the stories about floods, fires and heat waves etc are editing our relationship with climate change. It’s no longer such an abstract issue to us, it’s increasingly becoming real, hitting us where we really live, in the emotional realm.
AI safety is not the world’s most pressing problem. It is a symptom of the world’s most pressing problem, our unwillingness and/or inability to learn how to manage the pace of the knowledge explosion.
Our outdated relationship with knowledge is the problem. Nuclear weapons, AI, genetic engineering and other technological risks are symptoms of that problem. EA writers insist on continually confusing sources and symptoms.
To make this less abstract, consider a factory assembly line. The factory is the source. The products rolling off the end of the assembly line are the symptoms.
EA writers (and the rest of the culture) insist on focusing on each product as it comes off the end of the assembly line, while the assembly line keeps accelerating faster and faster. While you’re focused on the latest shiny product to emerge off the assembly line, the assembly line is ramping up to overwhelm you with a tsunami of other new products.