Wands cost 7 Galleons. People throw around comparable sums all the time in canon. Percy Weasley bets 10 Galleons on a Quidditch game, heck, Harry buys three sets of Omnioculars (wizarding binoculars) at 10 Galleons apiece to watch the Quidditch World Cup. Many wizarding supplies less useful than a wand cost considerably more. There really is no good reason for witches and wizards not to carry multiple wands except for tradition. Even the Weasleys could afford multiple wands if they made it a priority.
lmnop
But if we can’t measure the cultural factors and account for them
We can’t directly measure them, but we can get an idea of how large they are and how they work.
For example, the gender difference in empathic abilities. While women will score higher on empathy on self report tests, the difference is much smaller on direct tests of ability, and often nonexistent on tests of ability where it isn’t stated to the participant that it’s empathy being tested. And then there’s the motivation of seeming empathetic. One of the best empathy tests I’ve read about is Ickes’, which worked like this: two participants meet together in the room and have a brief conversation, which is taped. Then they go into separate rooms and the tape is played back to them twice. The first time, they jot down the times at which they remember feeling various emotions. The second time, they jot down the times at which they think their partner is feeling an emotion, and what it is. Then the records are compared, and each participant receives an accuracy score. When the test is run is like this, there is no difference in ability between men and women. However, a difference emerges when another factor is added: each participant is asked to write a “confidence level” for each prediction they make. In that procedure, women score better, presumably because their desire to appear empathetic (write down higher confidence levels) causes them to put more effort into the task. But where do desires to appear a certain way come from? At least partly from cultural factors that dictate how each gender is supposed to appear. This is probably the same reason why women are overconfident in self reporting their empathic abilities relative to men.
The same applies to math. Among women and men with the same math ability as scored on tests, women will rate their own abilities much lower than the men do. Since people do what they think they’ll be good at, this will likely affect how much time these people spend on math in future, and the future abilities they acquire.
And then there’s priming. Asian American women do better on math tests when primed with their race (by filling in a “race” bubble at the top of the test) than when primed with their gender (by filling in a “sex” bubble). More subtly, priming affects people’s implicit attitudes towards gender-stereotyped domains too. People are often primed about their gender in real life, each time affecting their actions a little, which over time will add up to significant differences in the paths they choose in life in addition to that which is caused by innate gender differences. Right now we don’t have enough information to say how much is caused by each, but I don’t see why we can’t make more headway into this in the future.
I’m guessing that Blaise will shoot himself in the name of Sunshine, tying all the scores. That seems like the kind of thing Dumbledore would plot. It makes the most sense from Eliezer’s point of view too, in terms of leading the story in a more interesting direction.
That is exactly what should happen, but I suspect that in real life it doesn’t, largely because of anchoring and adjustment.
Suppose I know the average intelligence of a member of Group A is 115, and the average intelligence of a member of Group B is 85. After meeting and having a long, involved conversation with a specific member of either group, I should probably toss out my knowledge of the average intelligence of their group and evaluate them based on the (much more pertinent) information I have gained from the conversation. But if I behave like most people do, I won’t do that. Instead, I’ll adjust my estimate from the original estimate supplied by the group average. Thus, my estimate of the intelligence of a particular individual from Group A will still be very different than my estimate of the intelligence of a particular individual from Group B with the same actual intelligence even after I have had a conversation (or two, or three) with both of them. How many conversations does it take for my estimates to converge? Do my estimates ever converge?
You may not be aware that lots of people who criticize women’s preferences seem to consider themselves, or men in general, entitled to female sexual attention, and they show insufficient regard for women’s body sovereignty and self-determination. If you want to evaluate women’s preferences, could you explain how we can do this in a way that respects women’s autonomy? What kind of benefits might women accrue from attempting to change their preferences, and if not, they why should they attempt to do so merely to satisfy men’s preferences?
I like this response! While I expect that in the heat of the moment most people (on all sides) won’t always be able to word themselves this carefully and explicitly, it’s a good general outline for future comments on controversial topics. Upvoted for thoughtfulness.
While it’s true that the average man is more attracted to looks than to status, and the average woman is more attracted to status than to looks, be careful not to over-generalize these preferences. Harry doesn’t seem to mind, for instance, that Hermione is plain looking, and admires her intelligence, while the average man prefers beautiful women noticeably less intelligent than he is. Hermione isn’t particularly attracted to high status men in canon (she picked Ron over Viktor Krum, for chrissakes), and there’s no indication that she’s different in MoR. Neither of them fit the personality profiles that the PUA community has studied most heavily, which I’ve heard described as “extroverted young women of average intelligence” and… well, I haven’t been informed about the type of men specifically, but I’ll hazard a guess that they’re not like MoR Harry. So PUA models of interaction between the sexes wouldn’t give you very reliable intuitions about how Hermione and Harry should act towards one another. Never mind that they’re prepubescent and applying any adult models of interaction that were developed with sexual relations in mind to them seems kind of creepy in the first place. “Relationship” aside, they’re mostly friends at this point.
I mean, I agree with you that Harry’s apology was rather embarrassing, but that was because it wasn’t warranted by the circumstances. If he’d actually done something worthy of an abject apology to Hermione, then he should be giving one, not restraining himself in order to protect his dominance over her.
I never really understood the claim that there’s no defense against Avada Kedavra. Sure, there’s no direct countercurse, but you can dodge it or levitate an object between yourself and the curse (Dumbledore levitated a statue in front of Harry to protect him from the curse in Book 5). Both of these responses can be trained to the point of instinct, and voila, you have a defense.
Wait, the fact that the second strategy works is inconsistent. If the Killing Curse can be blocked by inanimate objects, why is it that clothing doesn’t block it?
I think a big component of sex dynamics is, as you said, physical strength. Since women are physically weaker than men, they can’t rely on that to protect them from overly aggressive or hostile potential partners. The only thing keeping those overly aggressive or hostile potential partners in line are social norms against rape and abuse, which are already weak enough that, for example, rape apologism for famous athletes and victim blaming are common. Any talk that can potentially weaken those social norms then becomes a legitimate threat… unless the talk includes ways of subverting other social norms that balance its effect. For example, I think we could solve some problems by giving men “niceness training” instead of women.
The changes in font are distracting.
Hi! I too found the site through MoR, and I have to say, as fun as MoR is, the posts here are even more interesting.
In the case of refusing cryonics, I doubt that fear of social judgment is the largest factor or even close. It’s relatively easy to avoid judgment without incurring terrible costs—many people signed up for cryonics have simply never mentioned it to the girls and boys in the office. I’m willing to bet that most people, even if you promised that their decision to choose cryonics would be entirely private, would hardly waver in their refusal.
My problem wasn’t that Hermione advocated more caution, but that she seemed to be doing so only because they were going “against the rules” (without really understanding why the rule existed). But I reread the scene with her confrontation of Harry just now and I think I didn’t give her enough credit/ was confusing her with the canon version. Go Hermione ;)
No, but I read it just now, thank you for linking me. The example takeover strategy offered there was bribing a lab tech to assemble nanomachines (which I am guessing would then be used to facilitate some grey goo scenario, although that wasn’t explicitly stated). That particular strategy seems a bit far-fetched, since nanomachines don’t exist yet and we thus don’t know their capabilities. However, I can see how something similar with an engineered pandemic would be relatively easy to carry out, assuming ability to fake access to digital currency (likely) and the existence of sufficiently avaricious and gullible lab techs to bribe (possible).
I was thinking in terms of “how could an AI rule humanity indefinitely” rather than “how could an AI wipe out most of humanity quickly.” Oops. The second does seem like an easier task.
Interesting. I’m not sure if the correct dichotomy is status vs looks either. It could very well be money vs looks with both as indicators of status, since a woman’s status (and ability to confer status on a man with her attention) is often determined by her looks. Have their been studies comparing attraction to, for example, very beautiful female sex workers vs less beautiful cheerleaders? Disclaimer: I’m wildly speculating here…
But if you, personally, are less respectful of women’s requests, this won’t make men who are less respectful than you any more inclined to be respectful. It may lead them to be even less respectful (ie engaging in coercion or assault) because they’re now under more competition. Besides, by continuing to be respectful of women’s requests, you wouldn’t be “ceding the dating world,” you’d only be ceding the portion of the dating world that’s comprised of women who consistently give false rejections, which in my experience is a clear minority. Whereas by adopting a policy of ignoring women’s rejections, you’re likely to hurt the majority, who rejected you honestly. This seems unethical.
Regarding your claim that stalking, sexual assault and other “ills” would decrease if women were only more honest—serial rapists are great at deluding themselves into thinking the women they raped “wanted it.” Even if more women were completely honest in their rejections, how do you know that some men wouldn’t simply delude themselves into thinking otherwise, thus internally justifying their behavior?
Thank you for clarifying that paragraph. I wasn’t sure whether you were indicating whether the women or the stalker men didn’t receive punishment. It seems that you mean the men. You would be correct. Perhaps good men should band together to punish the men who behave threateningly to women, for instance by socially ostracizing those men and making it clear that such behavior is low status?
Please do cite more. Understand that your claims are difficult for me to just accept, because in my experience when women offer men a flat refusal, in the vast majority of cases they mean no. Yes, there are exceptions to this rule, but you seem to be implying that when women offer a flat refusal, there’s a significant, even close to 50% chance that they actually mean yes. You need more evidence than the word of a PUA or an anecdote about a woman you know to support that claim for people who haven’t had the same experiences as you.
I’m guessing it’s that Albus’s own father was committed to and died in Azkaban.
In book 7, Voldemort visits Grindelwald at Nurmengard in order to interrogate him about the location of the Elder Wand, and then kills him. So Grindelwald was definitely alive in book 1.
Mudblood can only be used to refer to muggle-born witches and wizards, making it a strictly racial and not socioeconomic term; many muggleborns, including Hermione, are actually quite well off. And it is definitely a big deal. Did you miss the gigantic brawl that ensued after Malfoy first called Hermione a Mudblood? I believe Ron was vomiting slugs for a day afterwards.
This is exactly the crux of the argument. When people say that everyone should be taught that people are the same regardless of gender or race, what they really mean isn’t that there aren’t differences on average between women and men, etc, but that being taught about those small differences will cause enough people to significantly overshoot via confirmation bias that it will overall lead to more misjudgments of individuals than if people weren’t taught about those small differences at all, hence people shouldn’t be taught about those small differences. I am hesitantly sympathetic to this view; it is borne out in many of the everyday interactions I observe, including those involving highly intelligent aspiring rationalists.
This doesn’t mean we should stop researching gender or race differences, but that we should simultaneously research the effects of people learning about this research: how big are the differences in the perception vs the reality of those differences? Are they big enough that anyone being taught about gender and race differences should also be taught about of the risk of them systematically misjudging many individuals because of their knowledge, and warned to remain vigilant against confirmation bias? When individuals are told to remain vigilant, do they still overshoot to an extent that they become less accurate in judging people than they were before they obtained this knowledge? I would have a much better idea how to proceed both as a society and as an individual seeking to maximize my accuracy in judging people after finding out the answer to these questions.