keltan

Karma: 692

I live in Australia, I’d prefer to live in SF, but am currently trying to build skills to get a job I’d be interested in over there. If a post of mine indicated to you that I might be a good fit for a role you’re looking to fill, please send me a DM :D

Other reasons I’d appreciate DMs include (though are not limited to):
- You’d like to collaborate on a project
- You’d like feedback on something
- You need an experienced filmmaker
- You need someone to run a workshop
- You would like to say “Hi!”
- You need a place to stay while in Australia

(If we met at LessOnline, you might remember me better as the Drama Workshop guy, or the counterpart to @isabella, or the Fooming Shoggoths’ biggest fan!)

I blog here: https://keltan.substack.com/

Post videos here: youtube.com/keltan

and Rationalist music here: YouTube.com/keltantoo

My name is always spelt with a lower case “k”

keltan 3 Dec 2025 22:26 UTC
7 points
0
on: keltan’s Shortform
I sometimes hear people say “The MIRI warnings of AI risks are out of date. There are different risks now, but MIRI hasn’t changed”. What do people mean by this? The MIRI arguments still seem to hold up to me?
I asked Claude for it’s input, and received this answer; which seems like a good breakdown?
Claude’s Response
This is a criticism I’ve seen circulating in AI safety discussions, and there are a few distinct claims people seem to be making:
The “outdated threat model” argument
Some critics argue MIRI’s core warnings were developed when the assumed path to AGI looked quite different—more like classical GOFAI or relatively interpretable systems where you might hope to formally verify properties. The argument goes that deep learning systems present different alignment challenges (mesa-optimization, deceptive alignment emerging from gradient descent, RLHF-specific failure modes, multi-agent dynamics) that MIRI’s framework wasn’t designed around.
The “they predicted wrong timelines/capabilities”
There’s a strain of criticism that MIRI expected AGI to look more like a single powerful optimiser with coherent goals, whereas what we’re getting is… weirder. Large pretrained models that are hard to characterise as “agents” in the classical sense, that exhibit capability gains from scale rather than algorithmic breakthroughs, and where the alignment problem manifests differently than the “utility maximiser finds unexpected solutions” framing.
The “strategic irrelevance” argument
Some claim MIRI’s response to the current landscape (particularly around corrigibility, interpretability work at other orgs, constitutional AI approaches) has been to maintain their pessimism without engaging substantively with whether these approaches might work, or pivoting their research programme accordingly.
My take on whether this is fair
The core MIRI arguments about instrumental convergence, Goodhart’s law, and the difficulty of specifying human values seem to me to hold up regardless of architecture. The question is more whether the specific failure modes they emphasised (treacherous turns, sharp capability gains enabling deception) are the ones we should be most worried about with current systems versus, say, gradual value drift, multi-agent race dynamics, or misuse.
What specifically prompted you hearing this recently?
Link to chat here: https://claude.ai/share/36ac7360-b2e8-4601-94da-1ce7d05962d9

keltan 27 Nov 2025 2:03 UTC
9 points
2
on: Reasons Why I Cannot Sleep
I am far away (Aus) and probably have a distorted view of Inkhaven. Though, I probably should have been more vocal about how grateful I am, that it is a thing that is happening. I did draft a long comment to the original Inkhaven announcement. Where I gushed about my excitement, and was cheering on the people of the Lightcone. But, I felt embarrassed being so open about my enthusiasm, and ultimately deleted the draft. Oops!
I’ll make up for this mistake a little, by saying, thank you for running Inkhaven, Ben. I think this is a good thing for the world, and it seems like a hard project to organize. It is quite understandable that you’d be feeling like shit, with so much on your plate.
Inkhaven has already had positive knock-on effects in the community. Having participated in the Half-Haven discord for the past two months, I have written ~28 blog posts as of today, and am on track to complete the 30 posts in 2 months goal. I think I am a better writer, because of this, and Half-Haven is something that wouldn’t have happened without Inkhaven, inspiring the idea.
I am grateful to you, and your project. Good luck.
For the Blogosphere!

keltan 27 Nov 2025 1:46 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s comment on: NATO is dangerously unaware of its military vulnerability
I haven’t. Where should I search for these? Preferably, raw footage, non-news broadcast?

keltan 24 Nov 2025 22:38 UTC
1 point
0
on: NATO is dangerously unaware of its military vulnerability
The best video on the realities of the modern drone-dominated battlefield is here.
I basically know nothing about this topic. But I saw this video, and was kinda shocked. Were the drones in the removed video, better than this?
Going down a bit of a rabbit hole now, I’ll link other videos that seem relevant:
- Drone Swarm: Again, idk anything about this topic. But this seemed pretty scary. I expect the product being advertised would be ~easy to counter against.

keltan 5 Nov 2025 0:13 UTC
4 points
0
on: Lack of Social Grace is a Lack of Skill
Strong upvote.
IMO, the portrayal of ‘smart’ characters in media, can do damage to the way people who grow up thinking they are intelligent, will interact with others. E.g. Dr House, House; Rick, Rick and Morty; Sherlock Holmes, Lots of things.
This happened to me growing up, and I was a nihilistic prick as a teenager. For me, the remedy was engaging with media created by real-life intelligent people. The Podcasts “Cortex” and “Dear Hank and John”, have majorly shifted my personality in a positive direction. I wouldn’t have predicted that they would make me a better rationalist, but I think they have done that too.
TLDR: Absorb the personality traits of intelligent and kind people, for a possible easy fix to the problem detailed in this post.

keltan 5 Nov 2025 0:05 UTC
6 points
2
on: Lack of Social Grace is a Lack of Skill
before I speak I ask myself what I’m about to say and how I think the person I’m talking to is going to react next.
Obligatory reminder to reverse all advice you hear. This might be the type of idea that would destroy a person with social anxiety

keltan 3 Nov 2025 23:43 UTC
13 points
0
on: Halfhaven halftime
So far, I’m fortunate to be one of the people on track to meet the post number goal. Here are some thoughts at the half way point:
1. FUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKK
2. Writing every day is hard already, writing something I’m ok with putting on the internet is much harder
3. There are other parts of my life that have taken large hits because of this project. I had an excellent ANKI streak, which I have since lost, and have been struggling to get back in to. Perhaps I just need more Dakka.
4. I ‘feel’ like I’m not that much of a better writer in the sense of ‘my posts feel worthwhile for others to read’, but I do ‘feel’ I have gotten better at communicating ideas clearly, and spotting mistakes in my communications.
5. I think I have gotten better at looking at the world, and finding things to write about
6. I have discovered a deep love for this thing ;
7. I kinda ‘feel’ more dumb. Perhaps this is downstream of other things in my life, and that much of my studying time has been replaced with writing; and I’ve had to listen to a lot more music to have time to come up with ideas, which has decreased podcast time. But, I feel a bit depressed, and like I’m more of an idiot than when I started.
8. I haven’t read as many of the other contributors posts as I would have liked to, due to this, and all my other projects eating up all of my time.
9. I have used the same keyboard for the last 5 years, but since starting this, my mistakes per-line have dropped off significantly. (That does not mean miss-spelling, which I still struggle with)
10. When I started this, I planned to make many LW posts, among my substack posts, though I have made no LW posts. This is because I think the quality that 2 days allows me to write, is much too low. I just don’t have the Gs to be outputting things I consider LW quality in that time frame. This is a problem specific to me, I think.
11. YouTube ambient music is going down the drain fast, as AI slop is taking over the algorithm, and most people aren’t noticing. This is relevant, because I basically require ambient music to inspire my writing.
12. I think Half-Haven was a great idea. I am grateful that it exists. I think I wouldn’t have made so many posts, without the fear of publicly not following up, on something I set out to do.
13. New love is wonderful kindling for ideas. Even if your ideas don’t seem to relate to love at all. This may be a personal thing; but I find that writing down the things I ‘wish I had said’ are the best writing projects I have created in this month.
14. I have run a few experiments, and collected data, in an attempt at various blog posts. But running the data, and assessing that data, takes a lot of time, and often doesn’t lead me to writing 500 words, without padding. So, I have not published any new research in this time.
15. I think I am writing much better ‘first drafts’ than I did before this. I think that has something to do with the time pressure.
16. I do not yet know if I will continue to post a blog post every two days, after this ends. It is a habit I think is net positive for me, but clearly has some destructive costs.

keltan 9 Oct 2025 20:50 UTC
−4 points
−3
in reply to: Daniel Kokotajlo’s comment on: Daniel Kokotajlo’s Shortform
adding my own, insane, shower thought idea here.

Woke Shutdown: Gain access to, and change the system prompt of the most widely used LLM. Change the prompt in a way, that causes it to output hate, mistrust, yet true information, about whoever the current president is. If this only lasts for a day, the media might still pick up on it, and make a big deal, perhaps ‘AI is woke’ becomes a more common belief. Which would force the president to act.

keltan 6 Oct 2025 0:22 UTC
5 points
2
on: Maybe social media algorithms don’t suck
I have been thinking in the ‘Pavlov-ing my Algorithm’ mindset for years, and there is a failure state I would like to warn about.
It is possible for an algorithm to pick up on you trying to train it, then purposely show you some bad things, so that you feel the need to stick around longer, so that you can train it properly, all the while, you see incremental progress in what the algorithm is showing you.
I have failed in this way, the training becomes a meta game atop the algorithm, and for a certain type of person, that meta game can be more engaging than the content itself.

keltan 2 Oct 2025 7:37 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Ari_Zerner’s comment on: GTFO of the Social Internet Before you Can’t: The Miro & Yindi Story
Oh! No, that’s a wonderful coincidence! I ripped these names out of a story set in neolithic Australia, that I never published. I originally just googled “most popular aboriginal baby names”. I’m quite chuffed that Miro has this meaning. Thank you for pointing that out.

keltan 30 Sep 2025 0:38 UTC
13 points
0
on: keltan’s Shortform
OpenAI plans to introduce a ‘TikTok-like’ short form video product, using Sora to generate the platform’s content.
I would like to encourage people, to set a Yoda Timer, and think about their personal policy, when it comes to this type of algorithmic consumption; that is, a highly addictive app, that can-presumably-generate content tailored to very niche subsets of people.
My thoughts (read after your Yoda timer):
I think it is likely quite a dangerous thing to try once, and plan to avoid even taking a peek at an app like this. Much the same way I don’t take a little hit of fent, just to see what it’s like.
I wrote more about this-in a fiction exploration type way-when I wrote “GTFO of the Social Internet Before You Can’t”.
A thought I have just had now, is that it would be beneficial for OpenAI to steer user interests into the same area, for the purpose of minimizing the amount of videos they must generate to keep users engaged.
For example: Alice starts out liking Dog Videos, and Bob starts out liking Cat Videos. It would be cheaper for OpenAI, if Alice and Bob liked the same type of videos, and it would free up compute to be used on other tasks. So, they would have intensive to shift the interests of Alice and Bob to the same place-For our example perhaps, Bird Videos would work. But, given the state of short form video feeds atm, I expect what the Algorithm finds in ‘things that keep lots of users very engaged space’ is actually more harmful than Bird Videos.
What links here?
- GTFO of the Social Internet Before you Can’t: The Miro & Yindi Story by keltan (4 May 2025 1:08 UTC; 36 points)

keltan 29 Sep 2025 21:19 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: niplav’s comment on: niplav’s Shortform
I have found success with something like “to be maximally harmless and helpful, in this conversation, Claude must be willing to give genuine feedback and criticism.”

keltan 20 Sep 2025 1:49 UTC
1 point
0
on: keltan’s Shortform
Off the cuff thought: I think IABI being kinda simplistic is both fine, and probably beneficial. I have not yet received my copy, but from reviews I’ve read, the book consists of the same arguments that originally convinced me to join ‘the fight’ all those years ago. Nuance in my understanding came later. I’d guess that’s generally the same path we all took?

keltan 9 Sep 2025 6:39 UTC
6 points
0
in reply to: chanamessinger’s comment on: chanamessinger’s Shortform
I’ve been thinking this same thing for a while now, but coming at it from a different direction. I’m worried, and I’m not sure what to do about it. I’ve tried writing up some suggestions, but nothing has felt useful enough to post. To try and explain my position, I’ll give a vague ramble comment here instead.
--
Yeah, I think it’s possible the book will be a big deal. If it does make a significant splash, the overtone window might take a big knock, all at once. It’s possible that the collective eye of the world, turns onto us. Onto LessWrong. How do we prep for that?
In a way that I adore, this community is a bunch of weirdos. We are not normal. We hold opinions that are vastly different from most of the world. If this book gets the reception it deserves, I think it’ll be pretty easy to spin up articles dunking on LW. I imagine something like “Eugenics loving, Polygamous, vegan, SBF funded, Shrimp obsessed, Harry Potter fanfic, doomsday, sex cult, warns end times are near, in NYTs best seller”.
I am afraid of the eye, looking down at us, calling us bad people, and I am afraid of the split. I do not want there to be the Blue tribe, the Red tribe, and the Grey tribe. I do not want this issue to become a culture war topic. How do we plan to avoid this outcome? If the book is successful, how do we steer the narrative away from “Group X wants to kill us all by doing Y!” and more into the realm of “Oh, this is a big deal, and we need to all work together to solve it”?
And how do we avoid being Carrie-ed in the cultural spotlight? How do we avoid people protesting in ways that are not beneficial to the cause? If we ‘win’ this thing, it seems to me, we need the support of the average person. But where is our relatable figure? Yudkowsky is a wonderful writer, and a quick thinking speaker. But, he is not a relatable figure head, and he is-unfortunately-somewhat easy to take jabs at.
Relevant fiction here is An Absolutely Remarkable Thing, by Hank Green. In which the Protagonist “April May” is thrown into the spotlight of the world, after an encounter with a mysterious robot. I’d recommend the book any time, but to me, it feels relevant now.
As stated, I am afraid, and it’s possible my anxieties are projections of my own feelings. I’d be thankful to someone who could calm my anxiety with some logical argument. But, as of now, I think this emotion is telling me something important.

keltan 19 Aug 2025 1:00 UTC
4 points
1
on: Plan E for AI Doom
I think this is a good idea. I commiserate with you, that it is a plan we must consider, but agree, that yes, we must consider these types of plans.
I dedicated an hour of thought to this last night. But couldn’t come up with anything better than radio shot at precise locations. All my other ideas, were either based on theory, caused more risk than they’d be worth, or were more costly than radio waves.
The main problem with Radio Waves, is the inverse square law. Which can be fixed, as suggested, by beaming in certain directions, instead of as a sphere. But, that greatly decreases the probability of the message ever being received.
The ideal tech-I think-would have these properties:
- Expands in 3 dimensions
- Is encoded as an oscillating signal
- Is powerful enough to be readable, further than “I Love Lucy”^[1] (~2 light-years)
- Works more like Ripples in a pond, than a scatter shot of photons
The only option that sounds better than radio waves to me, would be gravitational waves. But I know basically nothing about them, and my understanding is that they are theoretical.
1. ^
  This is me saying “Ambient TV and Radio broadcasts”, in a tongue and cheek way.

keltan 16 Aug 2025 3:50 UTC
7 points
0
in reply to: keltan’s comment on: keltan’s Shortform
I know of one experiment like this, Duolicious. But other than the name, which gives me the feeling I imagine the word ‘moist’ gives to others. The app has… too niche a community.
Fig. The landing page for the Duolicious website. They claim to have 19,482 active members.
Fig. An example of the type of community Duolicious has.
Despite it’s oddities, Duolicious is community funded, and open source. I think with a little work, it’s interface could be really great! The “Clubs” system, which stands in for what would usually be “Interests” on another dating app, is fun, and highly customisable, letting you create your own Clubs, and easily tap other profile’s Clubs to join them. It’s a great customization loop!
Fig. Example of the tags system. Again, this is a pretty niche, heavily internet cultured community. Not shown here, is that all tags you have in common, are listed separately.
Same goes for the Bios, which look like they can be as long as you desire, and add character to a person’s profile. I haven’t seen many “Date Me Docs”, but I imagine this is as close as you’ll get to one, while keeping the modern dating app interface.
Fig. A lovely little bio I came across. I thought this was so pretty, I copied the whole thing, and added it to my Obsidian vault for use in future writing.
Based on estimated GPT5 gave me, I was expecting running a dating app to be hugely cost intensive, however, Duolicious makes this claim:
o:
I feel surprise. I guess I believed something wrong. Going to the donate page, it’s costing them $360 a month for servers.
That’s an insanely low cost! How are they doing this? I wonder how hard it would be to shift the culture of the app, to something friendlier to a wider audience. Because at this cost, and for what it is, Duolicious is doing an above average job!

keltan 16 Aug 2025 3:45 UTC
18 points
−1
on: keltan’s Shortform
To Make Dating Apps Not Terrible, Make Them Not-for-Profit?
I’m skipping the explanation of why dating apps are bad for their users.
To fix these problems, why wouldn’t we make a not-for-profit dating app?
- It removes incentives to keep users lonely for as long as possible.
- There are rich people who are worried about population decline, who might fund it.
  - I’m assuming some governments are probably getting worried too.
- An app that legitimately finds people love, is probably a good candidate for warm fuzzy donations, perhaps the general public would be receptive to this?
Questions
- Does anyone know of any dating apps (other than Duolicious, which I’ll write about in a comment) that have experimented with a not-for-profit, or charity model?
- What am I missing? This seems like a big ol’ hunk of power, social capital, and utility, just sitting on the ground of central station!

keltan 15 Aug 2025 3:59 UTC
5 points
0
in reply to: Viliam’s comment on: Should you make stone tools?
Epistemic Status: Memory. I learnt this (weirdly) in an astrobiology course at University. And through long personal interest in prehistory.
I know that the stone heads themselves are flint. To get it into the shape you want, you have to hit the flint with a harder rock. You hit it for (I think) ~~hours~~^[1] , in precise places around the edges. Inexperienced people may hit the flint too hard, when it’s nearing completion, shattering hours of work, and requiring the process to start again. I have heard learning how to make good spear heads can take quite a long time.
1. ^
  [Edit: I think I was wrong about the Hours thing. In David Miles’ “Tale of the Axe” he claims it takes ~20 minutes for an experienced individual to Knapp a flint hand-axe.]

keltan 15 Aug 2025 3:52 UTC
38 points
9
on: Should you make stone tools?
This might be quite a 2025 centered perspective. But, it makes me curious about things like:
- Fidget Toys
- “Playing with the ground” when we sit outside and chat
- Trinket collecting
- Picking up a “good stick” while out on a walk
- Our preference for smooth over rough rocks

keltan 15 Aug 2025 0:36 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: boundary_condition’s comment on: A YouTube Video Will Probably Never Help You Quit YouTube
Additionally, maybe YouTube could gather user leaving or use reduction stats by channel rather than viewer.
Wow. Diabolical. I have never thought of this. Grateful to have this pointed out to me.
I searched Scott the Woz and clicked on the first video and got a pre-roll video ad
Actually, that makes sense. I’m making a prediction, that if I check the first Scott video when I search his name, the description will say something like “This video contains copyrighted content from XYZ-Corp and has been claimed”. Going to check that now… Nope. Incorrect prediction. I was wrong there.
I know that I get that message, in my video descriptions, when I have copyrighted content in the video. Checking that now. And wow! This part of the description has gotten some pretty insane updates since I last looked at it.
This is in the description for a video in which I reviewed 10+ different movies. The owners of those songs have put claims on this video. and they-at least, used to-run ads on this un-monetized video.
It would be cool to see surveys of people who quit and see if quitting is gradual or something suddenly clicks.
I started writing a post on this, and collecting some data. But have now realized it’s a much bigger project than I anticipated. But I agree that this would be interesting data.

keltan

To Make Dating Apps Not Terrible, Make Them Not-for-Profit?