I am honestly very surprised it became a front page post too! It totally is just speculation.
I tried to be super clear that these were just babbled guesses, and I was mainly just telling people to try to do same, rather than trusting my starting point here.
The other thing that surprised me is that there haven’t been too many comments saying “this part is off”, or “you missed trend X!”. I was kind of hoping for that!
Side note—France isn’t a great example for your point here “France, for example, is a very old, well-established and liberal democracy.” because the Fifth Republic was only established in 1958. It’s also notable for giving the president much stronger executive powers compared with the Fourth Republic!