I think this kind of submission is better suited in an open thread. :)
HungryHippo
I have an anecdote related to the understanding of historical mindsets.
Firstly, I have spent the majority my evenings the last ten years either inside buildings or along well lit streets in cities. I.e. my description of the night sky would basically go: “it’s mostly black, sometimes cloudy”. Whenever I have read about celestial navigation, I’ve thought: “That’s clever, but how did they figure out they could do that?”
Come last winter, I took part in a cabin trip. The air was very dry, and the sky was cloudless. When we arrived in the evening, more than an hour’s drive from the city, it was pitch dark (you couldn’t see your feet). What struck me—the way a brick strikes one’s face—when carrying stuff from the car to the cabin (walking back and forth, turning around, etc.) was this: “Of course humans have looked at the stars since forever. The stars (and moon and planets) are the only things anyone can look at at night. My eyes are drawn to them whether I want to or not.”
And: “When I turn around, the stars stay the same. Of course people could navigate by looking at them—they should navigate by looking at them!”
And: “Of course the ancients believed the stars were stuck to a celestial sphere. To my eye, the stars appear equally distant, and they appear fixed relative to each other. So when the earth rotates, it is the celestial sphere that turns. This is a model that corresponds to my observations.”
Edit to include:
This is an instance of Scott Alexander’s “What universal human experience do you lack?”. When I put myself in a situation which the ancients would have shared, I gained an increased appreciation of their mindset.
This sounds like simple confirmation bias to me.
The number of times something interesting happens is probably much lower than the number of times something un-interesting happens. But the former are the only ones you notice, because they are interesting.
Two anecdotes are relevant here.
Lewis Carroll from the introduction to his Symbolic Logic:
If possible, find some genial friend, who will read the book along with you, and will talk over the difficulties with you. Talking is a wonderful smoother-over of difficulties. When I come upon anything——in Logic or in any other hard subject——that entirely puzzles me, I find it a capital plan to talk it over, aloud, even when I am all alone. One can explain things so clearly to one’s self! And then, you know, one is so patient with one’s self: one never gets irritated at one’s own stupidity!
And Henry Hazlitt from his Thinking As a Science:
Fortunately there is one method superior to any yet named, which requires no study before its application, and no paraphernalia during it. It consists in simply talking your thoughts as you think them. One who has not tried this can have no idea of its effect. It possesses almost all the advantages of writing. You cannot wander without realizing the fact immediately. It makes your thinking much less vague than if you thought silently, increases your vocabulary, always keeps pace with your ideas, and requires practically no attention.
It may be objected that silent thinking itself is put in unspoken words. But this is not true. Part of silent thinking consists of unspoken words, but part of it consists of images, concepts and attitudes which pass through our minds and which we do not take the trouble to name. In silent thinking, too, there are also what appear to be occasional dead stops. All these processes drift into each other indefinably and are unrecognizable. When we talk we realize whether our images or concepts are vague or definite by our ability to name them, and we realize when our thought comes to a ^ dead stop’ by the fact that we miss the sound of our own voice.
[...] Talking has one disadvantage — it cannot always be used. To practice it, you must either lock yourself up in your room, or sit alone in a forest or field, or walk along unfrequented streets and by-ways. You can by no means allow any one to hear or see you talking to yourself. If you are caught doing this some asinine idiot is sure to mistake you for one.
Essentially, the world is a system of gears. To understand some activity that happens in world, look at the gears, what they do, and how they interact. Don’t search for a mysterious spirit responsible for the activity, if the activity can be fully explained by the gears.
You put your finger on something I’ve been attempting to articulate. There’s a similar idea I’ve seen here on Lesswrong. That idea said approximately that it’s difficult do define what counts as a religion, because not all religions fulfill the same criteria. But a tool that seems to do the job you want to do is to separate people (and ideas) based on the question “is mind made up of parts or is it ontologically fundamental?”. This seems to separate the woo from the non-woo.
My mutation of this idea is that there are fundamentally two ways of explaining things. One is the “animistic” or “intentional stance (Cf. Daniel Dennett)” view of the world, the other is the “clockwork” view of the world.
In the the animistic view, you explain events by mental (fundamentally living) phenomena. Your explanations point towards some intention.
God holds his guiding hand over this world and saved the baby from the plane crash because he was innocent, and God smote America because of her homosexuals. I won the lottery because I was good. Thunderclaps are caused by the Lightningbird flapping his wings, and lightning-flashes arise when he directs his gaze towards the earth. Or perhaps Thor is angry again, and is riding across the sky. Maybe if we sacrifice something precious to us, a human life, we might appease the gods and collect fair weather and good fortune.
Cause and effect are connected by mind and intention. There can be no unintended consequences, because all consequences are intended, at least by someone. Whatever happens was meant (read: intended) to happen. If you believe that God is good, this gives comfort even when you are under extreme distress. God took you child away from you because he wanted her by his side in heaven, and he is testing you only because he loves you. If you believe in no God, then bad things happen only because some bad person with bad intentions intended them to happen. If only we can replace them with good people with good intentions, the ills of society will be relieved.
In the clockwork view of the world, every explanation explains away any intention. The world is a set of forever-falling dominoes.
Everything that happens can be explained by some rule that neither loves you nor hates you but simply is. Even love is spoken of in terms of neural correlates, rising and falling levels of hormones. Sensory experiences, like the smell of perfume or excitations of the retina, explain love the same way aerodynamics explain the flying of an airplane. We might repackage the dominoes and name them whatever we like, still everything is made out of dominoes obeying simple rules. But even if the rules are simple, the numerous interacting pieces make the game complicated. Unintended consequences are the norm, and even if your intentions are good, you must first be very cautious that the consequences do not turn out bad.
The animist is more likely to parse “China has bad relations with Japan” in the same way as they parse the sentence “Peter dislikes Paul”, while the clockworker is likely to interpret it as “The government apparatus of either country are both attempting to expand control over overlapping scarce resources.”
The animist is more likely to support the notion that “The rule of law, in complex times, Has proved itself deficient. We much prefer the rule of men! It’s vastly more efficient.”, while the clockworkers are more likely to bind themselves by the law and to insist that a process should be put in place so that even bad actors are incentivized to do good. The animist believes that if only we could get together and overcome our misunderstandings, we would realize that, by nature, we are friends. The clockworker believes that despite being born with, by nature, opposing interests, we might both share the earth and be friendly towards each other.
The animist searches for higher meaning, the clockworker searches for lower meaning.
Indeed, this story from Polya emphasises the necessity of trying different angles of attack until you have a breakthrough (via squeak time.com):
The landlady hurried into the backyard, put the mousetrap on the ground (it was an old-fashioned trap, a cage with a trapdoor) and called to her daughter to fetch the cat. The mouse in the trap seemed to understand the gist of these proceedings; he raced frantically in his cage, threw himself violently against the bars, now on this side and then on the other, and in the last moment he succeeded in squeezing himself through and disappeared in the neighbour’s field. There must have been on that side one slightly wider opening between the bars of the mousetrap … I silently congratulated the mouse. He solved a great problem, and gave a great example.
That is the way to solve problems. We must try and try again until eventually we recognize the slight difference between the various openings on which everything depends. We must vary our trials so that we may explore all sides of the problem. Indeed, we cannot know in advance on which side is the only practicable opening where we can squeeze through.
The fundamental method of mice and men is the same: to try, try again, and to vary the trials so that we do not miss the few favorable possibilities. It is true that men are usually better in solving problems than mice. A man need not throw himself bodily against the obstacle, he can do so mentally; a man can vary his trials more and learn more from the failure of his trials than a mouse.
Snape’s big reveal in canon had a similar effect on me, since it was more or less solved by the readers ahead of time.
IIRC, at the end of The Dark Tower series King breaks the fourth wall and basically says: are you certain you want to read the ending? It will not be as good as you expect, so you might as well stop right here and savor the journey rather than being disappointed by the destination.
[the egg rolled passed Skipper, Kowalski, and Rico]
Skipper: Hey, anybody see that? That’s an egg! Is somebody gonna go get it?
Penguin #5: We can’t do that.
Skipper: Why not?
Penguin #6: Well, it’s a dangerous world out there and we’re just penguins. You know, nothing but cute and cuddly.
Penguin #7: Yeah. Why do you think there are always documentary crews filming us? [camera zooms out to see two men with a camera and a microphone for filming]
Penguin #8: Well, sorry, kid. You know, we lose a few eggs every year. It’s just nature.
Skipper: Oh, right, nature. I guess that makes sense. But… But something… something deep down in my gut tells me that it just doesn’t make any sense at all. You know what? I reject nature! [the other penguins gasp] Who’s with me? [with a shout, Skipper goes after the egg, much to Kowalski’s and Rico’s confusion]
Penguins of Madagascar, 2014
Very interesting article!
I’m incidentally re-reading “Feeling Good” and parts of it deal with situations exactly like the ones Oshun-Kid is in.
From Chapter 6 (“Verbal Judo: How to talk back when you’re under the fire of criticism”), I quote:
Here’s how it works. When another person criticizes you, certain negative thoughts are automatically triggered in your head. Your emotional reaction will be created by these thoughts and not by what the other person says. The thoughts which upset you will invariably contain the same types of mental errors described in Chapter 3: overgeneralization, all-or-nothing thinking, the mental filter, labeling, etc. For example, let’s take a look at Art’s thoughts. His panic was the result of his catastrophic interpretation: “This criticism shows how worthless I am.” What mental errors is he making? In the first place, Art is jumping to conclusions when he arbitrarily concludes the patient’s criticism is valid and reasonable. This may or may not be the case. Furthermore, he is exaggerating the importance of whatever he actually said to the patient that may have been undiplomatic (magnification), and he is assuming he could do nothing to correct any errors in his behavior (the fortune teller error). He unrealistically predicted he would be rejected and ruined professionally because he would repeat endlessly whatever error he made with this one patient (overgeneralization). He focused exclusively on his error (the mental filter) and over-looked his numerous other therapeutic successes (disqualifying or overlooking the positive). He identified with his erroneous behavior and concluded he was a “worthless and insensitive human being” (labeling). The first step in overcoming your fear of criticism concerns your own mental processes: Learn to identify the negative thoughts you have when you are being criticized. It will be most helpful to write them down using the double-column technique described in the two previous chapters. This will enable you to analyze your thoughts and recognize where your thinking is illogical or wrong. Finally, write down rational responses that are more reasonable and less upsetting.
And quoting your article:
(You might take a moment, right now, to name the cognitive ritual the kid in the story should do (if only she knew the ritual). Or to name what you think you’d do if you found yourself in the kid’s situation—and how you would notice that you were at risk of a “buckets error”.)
I would encourage Oshun-Kid to cultivate the following habit:
Notice when you feel certain (negative) emotions. (E.g. anxiety, sadness, fear, frustration, boredom, stressed, depressed, self-critical, etc.) Recognizing these (sometimes fleeting) moments is a skill that you get better at as you practice.
Try putting down in words (write it down!) why you feel that emotion in this situation. This too, you will get better at as you practice. These are your Automatic Thoughts. E.g. “I’m always late!”.
Identify the cognitive distortions present in your automatic thought. E.g. Overgeneralization, all-or-nothing thinking, catastrophizing, etc.
Write down a Rational Response that is absolutely true (don’t try to deceive yourself—it doesn’t work!) and also less upsetting. E.g.: I’m not literally always late! I’m sometimes late and sometimes on time. If I’m going to beat myself up for the times I’m late, I might as well feel good about myself for the times I’m on time. Etc.
Write steps 2., 3., and 4., in three columns, where you add a new row each time you notice a negative emotion.
I’m actually surprised that Cognitive Biases are focused on to a greater degree than Cognitive Distortions are in the rational community (based on google-phrase search on site:lesswrong.com), especially when Kahneman writes more or less in Thinking: Fast and Slow that being aware of cognitive biases has not made him that much better at countering them (IIRC) while CBT techniques are regularly used in therapy sessions to alleviate depression, anxiety, etc. Sometimes as effectively as in a single session.
I also have some objections as to how the teacher behaves. I think the teacher would be more effective if he said stuff like: “Wow! I really like the story! You must have worked really hard to make it! Tell me how you worked at it: did you think up the story first and then write it down, or did you think it up as you were writing it, or did you do it a different way? Do you think there are authors who do it a different way from you or in a similar way to you? Do you think it’s possible to become a better writer, just like a runner becomes a faster runner or like a basketball player becomes better at basketball? How would you go about doing that to become a better author? If a basketball player makes a mistake in a game, does it always make him a bad basketball player? Do the best players always do everything perfectly, or do they sometimes make mistakes? Should you expect of yourself to always be a perfect author, or is it okay for you to sometimes make mistakes? What can you do if you discover a mistake in your writing? Is it useful to sometimes search through your writings to find mistakes you can fix? Etc.”
Edit: I personally find that when tutoring someone and you notice in real time that they are making a mistake or are just about to make a mistake, it’s more effective to correct them in the form of a question rather than outright saying “that’s wrong” or “that’s incorrect” or similar.
E.g.:
Pupil, saying: ”… and then I multiply nine by eight and get fifty-four …” Here, I wouldn’t say: “that’s a mistake.” I would rather say, “hmm… is that the case?” or “is that so?” or “wait a second, what did you say that was again?” or “hold on, can you repeat that for me?”. It’s a bit difficult for me to translate my question-phrases from Norwegian to English, because a lot of the effect in the tone of voice. My theory for why this works is that when you say “that’s wrong” or similar, you are more likely to express the emotion of disapproval at the student’s actions or the student herself (and the student is more likely to read that emotion into you whether or not you express it). Whereas when you put it in the form of a question, the emotions you express are more of the form: mild surprise, puzzlement, uncertainty, curiosity, interest, etc. which are not directly rejecting or disapproving emotions on your part and therefore don’t make the student feel bad.
After you do this a couple of times, the student becomes aware that every time you put a question to them, they are expected to double check that something is correct and to justify their conclusion.
It appears Quirrell now believes Harry has used the killing curse. Applying Story Logic, this misjudgement of Harry will lead to Terrible Bad Consequences for Quirrell.
Some ramblings before ch90: Quirrell will not learn the truth of how Harry killed the troll, since Dumbledore will memory charm the Weasely brothers (they saw Harry’s patronus) and thus discover that their minds have been tampered with (by Quirrell). Suspecting Quirrell, Dumbledore will also erase the Weasely brothers’ memories of how Harry actually killed the troll. Quirrell will not actually see the dead troll. He will not be told how it died.
If Dumbledore does not find memories of the maraurder’s map in the Weasely brothers’ minds, he may well make the Quirrell=mort connection immediately: Dumbledore used the map to unsuccessfully locate Tom Riddle, and only a professor could have tampered with the minds of students who have been in Hogwarts this whole time.
With the Dota OpenAI bot, Alpha GO, and Deep Blue—it’s funny how we keep training AIs to play zero-sum war simulation games against human enemies.
They tried to show, they got a different answer, they showed it anyway.
This is very admirable! Especially on such a politically charged topic.
As to your last paragraph: yes, Lana could have imagined the future “one step further” by considering what would have happened when both sides of a war acquire these flying ships. In this respect, his “error” in considering only one of the two sides seems similar to one of Sun Tzu which goes something like:
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
What happens when both you and your enemy “know the enemy and know yourself”. How can neither of you not fear the result of a hundred battles?
However, consider also The Bomber Will Always Get Through, some 300 years later, as a counterpoint to “develop new strategies to defend against this new threat”.
I think you missed my point.
We know the Potters did not have their cloak because Dumbledore said so in his note to Harry.
To defend my parenthesis: earlier in the war, Voldemort taught Dumbledore that a human life is not of infinite worth. A corollary of this is that three humans lives may not be worth more than a deathly hallow. I.e. that the protection adequate for the safeguarding of three humans is not adequate for the protection of a deathly hallow (if the risk is that the deathly hallow falls into the hands of Voldemort).
It could also be evidence that they don’t like thinking about death. (Which inference you prefer depends on your own level of Quirrellness.)
I would be very disappointed and surprised if he were setting up strawmen.
Harald Eia (the presenter) recieved his Candidate’s Degree (hovedoppgave) (= Bachelor’s/Master’s Degree?) in sociology according to Wikipedia. In one of Norway’s talk-shows (I don’t remember which) Bård Tufte Johansen, Harald’s close colleague, said something along the lines of “We [Harald and Me] can not make a comedy-sketch where humans are interacting with dinosaurs, because Harald would protest that dinosaurs died out long before humans existed. [Quoted from memory!]”. The point being that Harald Eia is very particular about scientific details.
He is also host of a TV-show called “Brille” (which I haven’t seen myself) which according to the Norwegian Wikipedia-page is similar in concept to QI.
keyboard shortcuts to snap windows to any half or third of the screen (or full screen).
In Windows 10 you can,
Maximize a window using Windows Key + Up Arrow.
Un-maximize with Win + Down Arrow.
Minimize window with Win + Down Arrow again.
Cover left half, with Win + Left Arrow.
Upper right quarter with Win + Right Arrow, followed by Win + Up Arrow.
Lower left with Win + Left Arrow, followed by Win + Down Arrow.
When using left/right split windows, dragging the center resize bar will resize both windows.
Very convenient.
Congrats on your new Kindle. :-) I keep my Paperwhite 2 with me always and have started buying jackets based on whether or not they have pockets into which my Kindle fits.
2) Don’t know how easy they break, since I haven’t dropped one. I mean, when was the last time you dropped a book to the floor, or your phone? You’ll probably be equally careful with your Kindle.
I had an accident with my Kindle Keyboard, however, where I put it in my backpack without cover and pressure from a corner one of my hardcover books made an indentation in the screen. It slightly discolored the background of the Kindle, but the text is still readable.
The reason I don’t use a case is that I carry it with me, and the case makes it slightly thicker and heavier. I would use a case if I had it in my backpack.
1) I don’t.
3, 4) Check out Caliber for library management and book-tagging. I much prefer it to organizing books into collections on my Kindle. It will also convert between formats, but if your pdf is a scanned book it won’t improve.
Also check out the Kindle add on for Chrome/Mozilla. It sends web pages directly to your Kindle.
B. F. Skinner, “Science and Human Behavior”