4 hours ago, I thought there was a 0% chance money would be paid out. But 3 hours ago, a discussion made me think there was a chance they would do a payout for today, and then retract the whole thing tomorrow. That made me 20% certain that money would be paid out. So between those hours, there was a linear increase in the chance of money being paid out. And as other trends are possible, but not probable, then the prior should be that the trend continues, right? So I expect this to arrive at 100% chance several hours before payout time.
Though I’m curious whether the community agrees:
https://manifold.markets/LeonardoTaglialegne/will-lesswrong-actually-pay-out-the
I didn’t realize I was inviting these kinds of discussions, nor that I didn’t want them until now. I’d like to keep the comments focused on helping in humanitarian ways, if that’s okay.