4 hours ago, I thought there was a 0% chance money would be paid out. But 3 hours ago, a discussion made me think there was a chance they would do a payout for today, and then retract the whole thing tomorrow. That made me 20% certain that money would be paid out. So between those hours, there was a linear increase in the chance of money being paid out. And as other trends are possible, but not probable, then the prior should be that the trend continues, right? So I expect this to arrive at 100% chance several hours before payout time.
Though I’m curious whether the community agrees:
https://manifold.markets/LeonardoTaglialegne/will-lesswrong-actually-pay-out-the
I also see this as one of those things where “you shouldn’t stop yourself from doing the small good just because the big good wasn’t available”. Sure, it’d be better to just have a rational mentality, but if you can’t have that, then it’s better to just be rational about how your irrationality works. (And in the best case, we’ll find that it’s a stepping stone to a rational mentality.)