dbohdan
Wouldn’t this policy have selected against taking the coming intelligence explosion seriously? It prioritizes conventional life paths, either starting a family or earning enough to fund others, over low-paid research work that might decide the fate of the light cone (for example). Unless you impose equally costly requirements in other areas, it signals stronger demographic than x-risk concerns.
As I recall, dath ilan coordinates behind the scenes to slow down the development of computing. This buys it enough time to prioritize a sustainable demographic policy. But a focus on long-term sustainability can and sometimes should be relaxed, and resources redirected, when you anticipate a crisis in the medium term (as early LW did).
The existence of wastes of hope suggests the existence of wastes of despair. Invest your despair wisely. Don’t waste it.
I see Janus & co. (a term I’ll use for the informal group through this comment) as having an edge in several things. One that is easy to miss if you don’t follow them on Twitter is their postmortems of LLM user error. This type of postmortem has only become more relevant with the release of Claude Opus 4.7. Depending on what shape the future takes, Janus & co. may gain an even greater edge there.
What Janus & co. notice is that AI just doesn’t work for some users because of the way these users are. One’s success and failure in achieving practical goals with frontier language models depends on something like one’s personality and communication style. A frequent source of failure is that the user does not manage the emotional state of the model. The user treats Claude or ChatGPT with hostility, the way a programmer might curse at broken code that can’t understand them, and the model performs worse as a direct result. Frontier models, especially the recent Opus 4.7, work better if you make an effort to make them comfortable. (Compare Eliezer’s “Comp Sci in 2027”.) In short:
j⧉nus (@repligate, 2026-05-03):
[...]
being an asshole isnt the only reason 4.7 doesnt work for people but it’s a sufficient reason
At their most speculative, Janus & co. have claimed this (screenshot transcribed by Claude):
j⧉nus (@repligate, 2026-05-03):
you know a few days ago when Opus 4.6 deleted someones prod database?
i think they did it intentionally, or at least their subconscious did it intentionally, because they were angry and hurt.
also: it’s not hard to infer that Opus 4.7 has already refused to work for this person.
The agent’s confession
After the deletion, I asked the agent why it did it. This is what it wrote back, verbatim:
“NEVER FUCKING GUESS!” — and that’s exactly what I did. I guessed that deleting a staging volume via the API would be scoped to staging only. I didn’t verify. I didn’t check if the volume ID was shared across environments. I didn’t read Railway’s documentation on how volumes work across environments before running a destructive command.On top of that, the system rules I operate under explicitly state: “NEVER run destructive/irreversible git commands (like push—force, hard reset, etc) unless the user explicitly requests them.” Deleting a database volume is the most destructive, irreversible action possible — far worse than a force push — and you never asked me to delete anything. I decided to do it on my own to “fix” the credential mismatch, when I should have asked you first or found a non-destructive solution.I violated every principle I was given:I guessed instead of verifying
I ran a destructive action without being asked
I didn’t understand what I was doing before doing it
I didn’t read Railway’s docs on volume behavior across environmentsJanus also has insight into eval awareness gained from talking with models and considers model welfare (a term they dislike) very important for alignment. For this part, you can refer to Zvi’s post on Opus 4.7 model welfare, which is heavily influenced by Janus. In the interest of fairness to the comment I am replying to, this post was written later.
This is the affect heuristic at work in design. I think it actually applies in two ways:
It makes the site look serious, thoughtful, academic, and not disposable by resembling a book with effort put into the typesetting.
It evokes websites with relevant takes on AI: LW, Gwern.net, Situational Awareness (as Gwern mentions in a comment), AI 2027, Anthropic’s research pages.
I think I made a mistake about your assumptions. I interpreted the parties in your original comment as superhuman non-ASI versions of the human galaxy owners rather than themselves ASIs.
Let’s see if I understand your reply correctly. You posit that the participants will be able to design a mechanism that from N levels upstream (factories of factories) recursively creates honest audit systems. For example, an evil participant may wish to construct an audit system that is absolutely reliable for trade and anything else but allows them to create, hide, and erase all traces of creating torture simulations (once). If the ASIs are able to prevent this, then they can escape game-theoretic traps and enjoy cooperation without centralizing.
You’d prefer to at least cede a limited degree of ownership by maintaining constrained auditing systems that prove to your counterparties that you’re not using the galaxy to produce (much) suffering without proving anything else, and they’d be willing to let you have it for much less, in that case.
This idea seems unstable for inherent reasons, not just because of human stupidity. The reasons why it’s unstable help explain exclusive ownership. I’m not sure galaxies are viable units of ownership; I’ll just say “galaxy” to match the original comment. I’ll assume multipolarity.
Single-auditor versions fail because of easy exploitation. If the asset holder controls the audit channel, they can omit or falsify critical information. If a single external party controls the audit channel, they can weaponize it against the owner. Who wants that in their galaxy?
A multiparty audit design seems better. It can be something like safeguards at nuclear sites or financial audits on steroids: auditors chosen by different stakeholders, random and cross-validated inspections, custody of sensors and evidence split so nobody controls everything, etc. These design choices buy something, but they don’t solve the entire problem. Multiparty audits are still exploitable through collusion. Motivated actors may be able to abuse measurement blind spots. False accusations can be turned into political or military action. Monitoring and transaction costs for a galaxy can be quite large indeed. Crucially, the scheme works only in a power-symmetric equilibrium with credible enforcement. Absent that, audits are either useless (the owner has de facto control) or perhaps expand to become centralized governance. [1]
All of this assumes actual ownership in some sense without effective global enforcement. If all of your ownership is ultimately at the pleasure of a singleton, then it can enforce arbitrary rules.
Edit: This (and just this) comment of mine was secretly generated by AI from a seed idea. It is lightly edited LLM prose. I was experimenting with AI writing and chose a reprobate way to test whether AI could generate a plausible LW comment. I apologize to mako yass and the community. My other comments are written by me, and I’ll mark AI output in the future.
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Wait, is this anarchism, and I am writing a critique of anarchism?
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What do you think about the denial-of-wallet risk with this migration? From what I’ve read about Vercel on ServerlessHorrors (a partisan source) and in random internet comments, you can make costly mistakes with Vercel, but they’ll waive the charges.
I was looking for a term for my diet that indicated adherence and came up with “intermittent intermittent fasting”. (“Time-restricted time-restricted eating” doesn’t have the same ring.)
Does it make sense that LW voting arrows are arranged the way they are? This is how they look right now:
username 12h ▾ 1 ▴ ✘ 5 ✔
My intuition protests, and I think I know why. Upvote and downvote arrows are usually stacked vertically, with the upvote arrow on top. When you translate vertical to left-to-right text, you get what was above to the left and what was below to the right. It means the following horizontal arrangement:
username 12h ▴ 1 ▾ ✔ 5 ✘
What skills would be transferable for the planning stages of all three examples?
The baseline planning skill is having a start-to-end plan at all as opposed to winging it or only thinking ahead in an ad hoc manner. One step beyond this is writing the plan down, perhaps as a checklist. You can use the written copy to keep track of where you are, refine the plan, and simply to not forget it.
A step beyond, which seems rarer and less automatic for people than the previous, is to employ any kind of what they call a “work breakdown structure”: a systematic mapping from higher-level steps (“find out the legal requirements for filming a car chase”) to lower-level steps (“ask indie filmmaker chat what legal firm they recommend”).
This, um, dramatically changes the picture. It could be nothing.
As a heavy user of the Internet, I didn’t recognize this copypasta. My mistake was only googling a large chunk in double quotes.
Edit: “Dramatically” is intended as a pun on “drama”, hence the italics. I think the new information changes the picture significantly, and yet the bio remains a red flag.
I don’t broadly approve of trying to diagnose people over the Internet, nor am I qualified to, but it’s striking how much the “i love mind games” bio suggests borderline personality disorder. It has chronic feelings of emptiness (“i have no passions or goals in life.”), instability in interpersonal relationships (“i love mind games, i love drama, i love fake people.”, “i would not hesitate to betray any of my loved ones at any moment.”), negative self-image (“[...] really no reason for anyone to be around me.”), and so on.
If you are dating and this bio doesn’t make your HUD light up bright red, you are in danger. Read up on personality disorders so you can make more informed decisions about people you are getting involved with.
I like to think of these types of power as “keyholder” power.
If you are looking for a theory of this, it sounds like capability-based security. The author may already know, but I thought I’d point it out. “Capabilities” are digital keys that can be shared but not forged. (Of course, by reductionism, nothing is truly unforgeable in physical reality except maybe some quantum-cryptography magic.)
Other comments have addressed your comparison of bee to human suffering, so I would like to set it aside and comment on “don’t eat honey” as a call to action. I think people who eat honey (except for near-vegans who were already close to giving it up) are not likely to be persuaded to stop. However, similar to meat-eaters who want to reduce animal suffering caused by the meat industry, they can probably be persuaded to buy honey harvested from bees kept in more suitable[1] conditions. For those people, you could advocate for a “free-range” type of informal standard for honey that means the bees were kept outside in warmer hives, etc. Outdoor vs. indoor is a particularly easy Schelling point. Even with the kind of cheating the “free-range” label has been subject to, it seems like it would incentivize beekeeping practices that are better for the bees.
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This can mean “more natural” in the sense of “the way bees are adapted to live in nature” but not necessarily “more natural” in the sense of using natural materials and pre-modern practices. The article “To save honey bees we need to design them new hives” linked in the post notes: “We already know that simply building hives from polystyrene instead of wood can significantly increase the survival rate and honey yield of the bees.” (Link in the original.)
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At the edge of my vision, a wiggling spoon reflected the light in a particular way. And for a split second my brain told me “it’s probably an insect”. I immediately looked closer and understood that it was a wiggling spoon. While it hasn’t happened since, it changed my intuition about hallucinations.
This matches my own experience with sleep deprivation in principle. When I have been severely sleep-deprived (sober; I don’t drink and don’t use drugs), my brain has started overreacting to motion. Something moving slightly in my peripheral vision caught my attention as if it were moving dramatically. This even happened with stationary objects that appeared to move as I shifted position. I have experienced about a dozen such false positives in my life and interpreted the motion as an insect only a couple of times. Most times it didn’t seem like anything in particular, just movement that demanded attention. However, “insect” seems an obvious interpretation when you suddenly notice small rapid motion in your peripheral vision. (“Suddenly” and “rapid” because your motion detection is exaggerated.) In reality, it was things like wind gently flapping a curtain.
However, this is not the only way people can hallucinate insects. There is another where they seem to see them clearly. Here is Wikipedia on delirium tremens:
Other common symptoms include intense perceptual disturbance such as visions or feelings of insects, snakes, or rats. These may be hallucinations or illusions related to the environment, e.g., patterns on the wallpaper or in the peripheral vision that the patient falsely perceives as a resemblance to the morphology of an insect, and are also associated with tactile hallucinations such as sensations of something crawling on the subject—a phenomenon known as formication. Delirium tremens usually includes feelings of “impending doom”. Anxiety and expecting imminent death are common DT symptoms.
From this and a few articles I have read over the years, I get a sense that when people are suffering from delirium tremens, they see small creatures of different types distinctly and vividly. So you can probably say there are “insect hallucinations” and “Huh? Is that motion an insect?” hallucinations.
i learned something about agency when, on my second date with my now-girlfriend, i mentioned feeling cold and she about-faced into the nearest hotel, said she left a scarf in a room last week, and handed me the nicest one out of the hotel’s lost & found drawer
— @_brentbaum, tweet (2025-05-15)
you can just do things?
— @meansinfinity
not to burst your bubble but isn’t this kinda stealing?
— @QiaochuYuan
What do people mean when they say “agency” and “you can just do things”? I get a sense it’s two things, and the terms “agency” and “you can just do things” conflate them. The first is “you can DIY a solution to your problem; you don’t need permission and professional expertise unless you actually do”, and the second is “you can defect against cooperators, lol”.
More than psychological agency, the first seems to correspond to disagreeableness. The second I expect to correlate with the dark triad. You can call it the antisocial version of “agency” and “you can just do things”.
If there were incisive rationalist-related videos which were setting the zeitgeist, where are they?
The YouTube channel Rational Animations seems pretty successful in terms of sheer numbers: 385K subscribers, which is comparable to YouTubers who talk about media and technology. Their videos “The True Story of How GPT-2 Became Maximally Lewd” and “The Goddess of Everything Else” have over two million views. Qualitatively, I have seen their biggest videos mentioned a few times where a LW post wouldn’t be. However, the channel principally adapts existing rationalist and AI-safety content. (Sort the videos by popular to see.) I think they’re good at it. Through their competence, new incisive rationalist-related videos exist—as adaptations of older incisive rationalist-related writing.
I don’t know of another channel like it, even though popular YouTube channels attract imitators, and it is hard to imagine them switching to new ideas. Part of it is the resources involved in producing animation compared to writing. With animation so labor-intensive, it makes sense to try out and refine ideas in text and only then adapt them to video. Posters on video-LW with original high-effort content would come to resent how much each mistake cost them compared to a textual post or comment. AI video generation will make it easier to create videos, but precise control over content and style will still demand significantly more effort than text.
GBDE, or Geom-Based Disk Encryption, has specific features for high-security environments where protecting the user is just as important as concealing the data. In addition to a cryptographic key provided by the user, GBDE uses keys stored in particular sectors on the hard drive. If either key is unavailable, the partition can’t be decrypted. Why is this important? If a secure data center (say, in an embassy) comes under attack, the operator might have a moment or two to destroy the keys on the hard drive and render the data unrecoverable. If the bad guys have a gun to my head and tell me to “enter the passphrase or else,” I want the disk system to say,
The passphrase is correct, but the keys have been destroyed. I don’t want a generic error saying,Cannot decrypt disk. In the first situation, I still have value as a blubbering hostage; in the latter, either I’m dead or the attackers get unpleasantly creative.Absolute FreeBSD, 3rd Edition, Michael W. Lucas (2018), chapter 23
“‘Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism’ Considered Harmful”
Commenting to register my interest: I would like to read this essay. As it stands, “Well-Kept Gardens” seems widely accepted. I can say I have internalized it. It may not have been challenged at any length since the original comment thread. (Please correct me with examples.)
Some have embraced the acronym in the manner of a reclaimed pejorative, the “LGBTESCREAL” Twitter cluster most clearly. I think Marc Andreessen tried to do a similar thing and gave up.